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Greetings!
After the holiday and spring break slowdown, the Manhattan $4M+ market continues to demonstrate resilience.
40 contracts were signed last week- matching the previous 40 —nearly double the 20-contract benchmark that defines a healthy market..
At the same time, new supply is rising, giving buyers more options—but absorption continues to keep pace.
The market is not accelerating—it is stabilizing at a high level.
Market Snapshot
Weekly Activity ($4M+)
- Contracts Signed: 40→ Same number week-over-week, another stellar performance
- New Listings: 100→ Up 32% week-over-week
- Listings Removed: 25→ Down 4% week-over-week
- Sales Volume: $429,945,002 → Up 39% week-over-week
What this means:
Signed contract numbers show very strong results in the past 2 weeks- sales volume surged significantly, driven by high-value deals. Supply is increasing—significantly last week. This is a typical seasonal increase. Overall inventory is still tight.
30-Day Market Perspective
- Contracts Signed: 160 vs. 150 last year→ Up 7% YoY
- New Listings: 321 vs. 382 last year → Down 16% YoY
- Listings Removed: 107 vs. 154 last year → Down 31% YoY
Interpretation:
Demand is stronger than last year, while supply remains meaningfully constrained.
This dynamic is quietly strengthening seller leverage—particularly for properties that are positioned correctly from day one.
Market Indicators
$4M+ Market
- Market Pulse: 2.45→ Down 1.6 pts MoM → Up 1 pt YoY
- Climate Index: 1.94 → Up 23.6% MoM → Up 12.8% YoY
Climate Index Thresholds:
Easy Market: 1.27
Challenging Market: 0.57
Definitions:
Market Pulse measures the relationship between supply and demand—tracking how quickly inventory is being absorbed.
Climate Index reflects the overall ease or difficulty of transacting in the market based on ratio of properties coming off the market versus properties that went into contract
The market is slightly favoring sellers, with improving absorption and increasingly favorable transactional conditions.
$10M+ Market
- Market Pulse: 3.1 → Down 1.8 pts MoM → Up 2.4 pts YoY
- Climate Index: 1.88 → Up 45.7% MoM→ Up 44.6% YoY
Climate Index Thresholds:
Easy Market: 0.88
Challenging Market: 0.38
Interpretation:
The ultra-luxury market remains highly resilient, supported by limited inventory and consistent demand at the top tier.
New Development & $10M+ Market Share
- New Development: 11 contracts → 28% market share
- $10M+ Contracts: 12 → 30% market share
Insight:
A significant portion of activity is concentrated at the high end—where buyers are prioritizing new development, quality, and long-term value.
Property Type Breakdown
- Condos: 29 contracts (73%)
- Townhouses: 5 contracts (13%)
- Co-ops: 6 contracts (15%)
Insight:
Condos continue to dominate, reflecting buyer preference for flexibility, newer product, and fewer restrictions.
Neighborhood Performance
- Midtown: 18 contracts (45%)
- Downtown: 15 contracts (38%)
- Upper East Side: 9 contracts (24%)
- Upper West Side: 8 contracts (21%)
Insight:
Midtown and Downtown led activity, driven by new development and high-end inventory, while the Upper East and Upper West Sides maintained steady demand.
Pricing Trends
- Discounted Contracts: 11 (29%)
- Median Discount: 9%
What this tells us:
Negotiability remains—but it is measured and strategic.
Well-priced properties are trading efficiently, while overpriced listings are being corrected through discounts.
Top Contracts — See All 38 Contracts
#1 — 111 West 57th Street, PH76 | Billionaire’s Row
New Development Condov -4 Bedrooms | 4.5 Baths -6,512 sq. ft.
$45,000,000 (reduced from $49M) -$6,910/ft² -638 days on market
A defining supertall penthouse finally securing a buyer—highlighting that even trophy assets require precise pricing to transact.
#2 — 50 West 66th Street, #56N | Lincoln Square
New Development Condo -4 Bedrooms | 5.5 Baths -4,878 sq. ft.-$35,500,000- $7,277/ft²- 42 days on market
A strong, swift contract reflecting continued demand for turnkey, high-quality new development in prime locations.
Boots on the Ground — A Market Defined by Precision
The market remains active—but highly disciplined.
Buyers are engaged and transacting—particularly at the high end.
New inventory is increasing, creating more choice.
Absorption remains strong, preventing oversupply.
This is not a momentum-driven market.
It is a precision-driven market.
Well-priced properties are moving—and in some cases, attracting competition.
Best-in-class product is commanding attention.
Mispriced listings are sitting—or adjusting.
The key shift:Demand is steady, but selective—rewarding strategy over speculation.
Advice for Sellers
This is a favorable window—but execution is critical.
Price based on today’s market—not past expectations.
Elevate presentation to meet luxury buyer standards.
Position strategically from launch.
When aligned correctly, properties are attracting serious buyers—and strong outcomes.
Advice for Buyers
The market is active—but opportunity remains.
Act decisively on well-priced properties.
Target stale listings for negotiation potential.
Focus on fundamentals: layout, light, location, and long-term value.
The advantage lies in identifying where pricing and perception diverge.
Final Thoughts
This was another strong week for the Manhattan luxury market:
Contracts remain well above healthy benchmarks.
Sales volume surged significantly.
Inventory is rising—but not overwhelming demand.
The high-end market continues to lead.
This is a balanced market—with a subtle tilt toward sellers.
Not because of excess demand—
But because of disciplined supply and selective buyers.
The Pulse: Where data transforms into actionable insights for smart real estate decisions.
If you’re considering selling—or want to understand how your property fits into today’s market, I would be delighted to provide a custom analysis tailored to your goals. Let’s position your property for success.
Warm regards,
Carol
Carol Staab
Top 100 Sotheby's Global Real Estate Sales Advisor
Top 10 for Sotheby's Individuals Manhattan
My Recent Notable Sale Ritz Carlton $28.4M
Sotheby's International Realty.
Email: [email protected]
Cell: 917-273-7787
Website: CarolStaab.Com
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