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Greetings!
Contracts in the Manhattan $4M+ market fell 25% last week—but the real story isn’t demand. It’s supply.Even at 30 contracts, the market is still operating 50% above the 20-contract level that defines a healthy luxury market. The shift we’re seeing is that fewer properties came to market, limiting the number of transactions.
And yet—buyers are still there.
This is what a supply-constrained market looks like:
Fewer deals, not because demand is weakening—but because inventory is tightening again.
Market Snapshot
Weekly Activity ($4M+)
- Contracts Signed: 30 → Down from 40 (↓25% week-over-week)
- New Listings: 62 → Down from 100 (↓38% week-over-week)
- Listings Removed: 18 → Down from 25 (↓28% week-over-week)
What this means:
The decline in contracts is directly tied to fewer new listings—not fewer buyers.
There were simply fewer opportunities to transact.
But when the right property comes to market, buyers are still stepping in.
30-Day Market Perspective
- Contracts Signed: 161 vs. 139 last year → Up 16%
- New Listings: 328 vs. 376 last year → Down 13%
- Listings Removed: 102 vs. 153 last year → Down 33%
What this tells us:
Demand is stronger than last year—while supply remains constrained.
More buyers are competing for fewer well-positioned properties.
Market Conditions
$4M+ Market
- Market Pulse: 3.8 → Higher than last month and last year
- Climate Index: 1.99 → Up significantly
These indicators measure how quickly properties are being absorbed and how favorable conditions are. Both are signaling a market that is quietly working in sellers’ favor—driven not by surging demand, but by disciplined supply.
$10M+ Market
- Contracts Signed: 8 → 27% of the market
At the highest price points, activity remains steady—even with fewer listings available.Serious buyers are still engaging at the top of the market.
New Development vs. Resale
- New Development: 4 contracts → 13% of the market
New development activity slowed—not due to lack of demand, but limited availability. As a result, buyers are increasingly turning to resale properties—particularly those that are renovated and move-in ready.
Property Types
- Condos: 20 contracts → 67% market share
- Co-ops: 6 contracts → 20% market share
- Townhouses: 4 contracts → 13% market share
Condos continue to lead, driven by flexibility, ease of purchase, and turnkey appeal.
Neighborhood Activity
- Upper West Side: 9 contracts → 30% market share
- Downtown: 7 contracts → 23% market share
- Upper East Side: 7 contracts → 23% market share
- Midtown: 7 contracts → 23% market share
Activity was evenly distributed across Manhattan.
Buyers are evaluating value across the entire market—not focusing on one area.
Pricing Trends
- Discounted Deals: 5 → 17% of contracts
- Median Discount: 7%
Fewer deals required discounts—and those that did were modest.
Well-priced properties are trading closer to asking price.
#1 — 16 Fifth Avenue, Penthouse 2
Greenwich Village | New Development Condo
5 Bedrooms | 7.5 Baths | 6,823 sq. ft.
$45,000,000 | $6,595/ft² | 170 Days on Market
A significant penthouse securing a contract after extended exposure—demonstrating that even exceptional properties require precise pricing and patient positioning to achieve a result.
#2 — 275 West 10th Street, #4C
West Village | Recent Condo Development
4 Bedrooms | 4.5 Baths | 3,809 sq. ft.
$16,250,000 | $4,266/ft² | 7 Days on Market
A very different outcome—this home went into contract in just one week.
When a property is well-priced and move-in ready, buyers act quickly.
What I’m Seeing on the Ground
The data tells one story. What’s happening in real time adds another layer.
- Buyers are active—but highly selective
- Turnkey properties are outperforming
- Mispriced listings are being bypassed quickly
When I evaluate a property in this market, I diagnose three things immediately:
pricing alignment, presentation quality, and how it compares to competing inventory across Manhattan.
If those elements are not aligned, the market responds quickly—often within the first few weeks.
This is no longer a market where everything sells.
It’s a market that rewards precision—and exposes misalignment.
Advice for Sellers
This is a strong market—but it no longer rewards timing. It rewards precision.
- Price based on today’s market—not past expectations
- Present your property at a high level—buyers notice everything
- Understand your competition extends across all of Manhattan
When pricing, presentation, and positioning align, properties are selling—and often outperforming.
Advice for Buyers
Opportunity remains—but it is no longer obvious. It requires a strategic approach.
- Act decisively on well-priced properties
- Look for homes that may be overlooked or need updating
- Pay attention to how long a property has been on the market—and why
The advantage comes from identifying value before the market does.
Final Thoughts
This was not a weak week—it was a constrained one.
- Fewer listings led to fewer contracts
- Demand remains strong
- Seller conditions continue to improve
This is a disciplined market where strategy—not timing—is determining outcomes.
Let’s Talk Strategy
In today’s market, the difference between sitting and selling rarely comes down to timing—it almost always comes down to how a property is priced and positioned from day one.
If you’re considering selling, I will show you exactly where your property sits in today’s market—and what needs to be adjusted to ensure it sells, not sits.
If you’re buying, I can help you identify where pricing and perception are misaligned—before the opportunity becomes obvious to everyone else.
The Pulse: Where data transforms into actionable insights for smart real estate decisions. Share The Pulse with others that may find it of value.
Warm regards,
Carol
Carol Staab
Top 100 Sotheby's Global Real Estate Sales Advisor
Top 10 for Sotheby's Individuals Manhattan
My Recent Notable Sale Ritz Carlton $28.4M
Sotheby's International Realty.
Email: [email protected]
Cell: 917-273-7787
Website: CarolStaab.Com
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