|
Greetings!
The Manhattan $4M and over luxury market delivered another excellent performance last week, with 37 contracts signed — nearly double the 20-contract benchmark typically associated with a healthy luxury market.
Because the spring market was delayed this year and contract activity has remained strong, I am watching whether momentum carries beyond June. The Manhattan luxury market often becomes quieter as summer begins, but this year may have a longer runway. With 75 contracts signed over the past two weeks and 144 contracts signed over the last 30 days, the activity suggests that some late-spring demand may continue into early summer — particularly for properties that are priced correctly, positioned strategically, and marketed with a clear story.
The Upper East Side led the market, co-op activity strengthened, the $10M+ segment remained active, and sellers continued to face a materially easier climate than they did at this time last year. At the same time, new listings are rising and more properties are being pulled off the market — a reminder that even in a healthier market, buyers remain selective.
In Manhattan luxury real estate, pricing matters. But so does perception.
Market Snapshot: $4M+ Manhattan Luxury
The $4M and over market recorded 37 contracts signed last week, down slightly from 38 the prior week, a modest 3% decrease.
New listings rose to 61, up 17% from 52 the prior week.
Listings going off market increased sharply to 56, up 60% from 35 the prior week.
Over the last 30 days:
- 144 contracts signed, down just 1% from 146 at the same time last year
- 278 new listings, down 8% from 303 last year
- 160 listings went off market, up 31% from 122 last year
That last number is worth watching. A strong market does not mean every listing is working. When off-market activity rises, it often signals that certain properties are not connecting with buyers — whether because of pricing, presentation, timing, condition, or a lack of clear positioning.
Behind the Deals: The Quiet Work That Keeps a
Transaction Moving
This week, I was reminded that some of the most important work in a transaction happens after the contract is signed.
I have a Fifth Avenue three-bedroom apartment in contract, currently awaiting board approval. The board package had been under review for about a month.
The buyers were understandably getting nervous. They want to close quickly, complete their work, and move in before August so their family can be settled before school begins.
After several “no news” updates, I escalated the communication — clearly, professionally, and with the right people copied — explaining that the application had been pending for a month and that timing mattered.
The next day, we received the message we had been waiting for:
Board approved. Interview scheduled.
A signed contract is not the finish line. In Manhattan, especially with co-ops, the path from contract to closing requires constant attention, judgment, and communication.
In this case, the solution was not drama. It was precise, persistent, effective communication with the right people at the right moment.
Now we move to the board interview — and then, hopefully, to closing.
Sales Volume
Weekly sales volume totaled $298,289,999, down just 1% from the prior week.
That is a strong number and reinforces the depth of demand in the Manhattan luxury market when buyers find properties that feel compelling.
A property needs to answer a very clear question:
Why this home, in this building, in this neighborhood, at this price — now?
That is the story the market needs to hear.
Property Type Breakdown
Condos continued to dominate contract activity:
- Condos: 24 contracts | 63% market share
- Co-ops: 8 contracts | 21% market share
- Townhouses: 5 contracts | 13% market share
The co-op activity is especially notable.
Well-positioned co-ops, particularly on the Upper East Side, continue to attract serious buyers when they offer scale, light, location, building quality, and a compelling value proposition relative to condominiums.
Neighborhood Performance
The Upper East Side led the market last week with 14 contracts, representing 37% market share, helped by stronger co-op activity.
- Upper East Side: 14 contracts | 37%
- Midtown: 11 contracts | 29%
- Downtown: 8 contracts | 24%
- Upper West Side: 5 contracts | 13%
The Upper East Side continues to show resilience because it offers established buildings, gracious layouts, strong services, architectural character, Central Park proximity, and in many cases, relative value compared with newer condominium product.
New Development and $10M+ Market
New development represented 4 contracts, or 11% of market share.
The $10M and over segment recorded 5 contracts, representing 13% of the market.
Discounting remained modest:
- 9 contracts received discounts
- That represents 24% of the market
- The median listing discount was 6.5%
The takeaway: buyers are still negotiating, but they are not necessarily waiting on the sidelines. When the property, pricing, and story align, they are acting.
Market Indicators
$4M+ Market Pulse
The $4M+ Market Pulse was 3.45, down 0.1 points from last week and up 1.6 points from this time last year.
This continues to favor sellers more than it did a year ago.
$4M+ Climate Index
The $4M+ Climate Index was 1.47, down 26.1% from last month but up 24.6% from this time last year.
For context:
- Easy seller market threshold: 1.27
- Challenging seller market threshold: 0.57
At 1.47, sellers are still operating in a more favorable climate than they were last year.
$10M+ Market Pulse
The $10M+ Market Pulse was 4.8, up 0.6 points from last month and up 4 points from this time last year.
That is a meaningful improvement in the ultra-luxury segment.
$10M+ Climate Index
The $10M+ Climate Index was 1.57, down 16.5% from last month but up 180.4% from this time last year.
For context:
- Easy seller market threshold: 0.88
- Challenging seller market threshold: 0.38
At this level, $10M+ sellers are facing a far easier climate than they did a year ago.
1. 160 East 81st Street — Townhouse
Asking Price: $26,000,000
Bedrooms: 7
Bathrooms: 5.5
Rooms: 14
Size: 7,675 sq. ft.
Price per sq. ft.: $3,387
Days on Market: 165
The top contract of the week was a substantial Upper East Side townhouse. Townhouses remain a distinct segment of the Manhattan luxury market because they offer privacy, scale, outdoor space, and a sense of ownership that feels more personal and architectural.
2. 255 East 77th Street, PHA — New Development
Asking Price: $25,700,000
Developer: Naftali Group
Architecture: Robert A.M. Stern
Bedrooms: 7
Bathrooms: 7.5
Size: 5,932 sq. ft.
Price per sq. ft.: $4,334
Days on Market: 65
The second-highest contract was Penthouse A at 255 East 77th Street, a new development by Naftali Group with architecture by Robert A.M. Stern.
This contract reinforces the appeal of new development when the product delivers scale, design pedigree, services, and a fully realized luxury lifestyle.
Seller Perspective
The market is strong, but not indiscriminate.
With 37 contracts signed last week, sellers have reason to feel encouraged. But the increase in listings going off market is an important warning sign: buyers are not rewarding every property simply because the broader market is active.
The properties that are working tend to have at least three things in common:
- The pricing is defensible.
- The marketing tells a clear story.
- The property is positioned for a specific buyer, not simply placed online.
This is where many luxury listings fall short.
Too often, properties are marketed as a collection of features: number of bedrooms, square footage, exposures, finishes, and amenities.
Those details matter, but they are not enough.
A luxury property needs a narrative.
Who is the buyer?
What lifestyle does the property offer?
Why does the building matter?
What does the neighborhood add to the experience?
Why should a buyer and their broker remember this property?
My approach is to identify the target buyer before the marketing begins — then craft the photography, video, description, and property narrative around what will make that buyer understand the value.
The strongest listings do not just describe space.
They create desire.
Buyer Perspective
Buyers are still finding opportunities, but the window is narrowing in certain segments.
The $4M+ market is favoring sellers more than it did last year, and the $10M+ segment has improved meaningfully. That does not mean buyers should rush. It means they should be prepared.
Know your preferred property type. Understand the trade-offs between condo, co-op, townhouse, and new development. Be financially prepared before negotiating. Move decisively when the right property appears.
And pay attention to buildings, not just apartments.
In Manhattan, the building can be as important as the residence itself. Board culture, financials, services, rules, architecture, resale history, and buyer perception all matter.
Policy Watch: Proposed Pied-à-Terre Tax and Cash Purchase Surcharge
The proposed pied-à-terre tax has become an increasingly important issue for Manhattan luxury buyers and sellers to watch.
Governor Kathy Hochul initially described the proposal as targeting luxury second homes in New York City valued at $5 million or more. More recent reporting indicates the proposal may be structured in phases, with the first two years using Department of Finance values and reported rates ranging from 4% to 6.5% during that transition period. Department of Finance values can be significantly lower than actual market sale prices, which could make the impact uneven and potentially confusing.
There is also a separate proposed tax on all-cash home purchases over $1 million in New York City. Recent reporting has described this as a potential 1% surcharge on qualifying all-cash transactions — a significant issue in Manhattan, where many luxury purchases are completed without financing.
My view: the market will be watching the details closely.
The questions are significant:
- How will comparable values ultimately be determined?
- Will some second-home buyers change their behavior?
- Will buyers look for workarounds?
- Could this affect liquidity in the luxury segment?
- How much uncertainty will be created before the final legislation is clear?
For now, these are proposals — not settled market reality. But they are important enough that luxury buyers, sellers, and advisors should be paying close attention.
Final Takeaway
This week’s luxury market delivered another strong result, with 37 contracts signed and continued strength across the $4M+ and $10M+ segments.
Because the spring market was delayed and contract activity has remained strong, the season may continue past June more than we typically expect. The traditional summer slowdown may still arrive, but recent activity suggests the luxury market could have a longer runway this year — especially for properties that are priced correctly, positioned strategically, and marketed with a clear story.
The market is active, but buyers remain selective. Sellers have more leverage than they did last year, but only when pricing, positioning, and presentation are aligned. Buyers still have opportunities, but they need to be prepared, decisive, and aware of both market momentum and potential policy changes.
In Manhattan luxury real estate, success is rarely about one factor.
It is the combination of market intelligence, storytelling, negotiation, timing, and execution. That is where results are created.
Thinking about selling this year?
As we move into peak listing season, the properties that stand out will be the ones with clear pricing, strong positioning, and a compelling story. If you would like a strategic assessment of how your property would compete in today’s Manhattan luxury market, I would be pleased to prepare a private market positioning review.
If you found this edition of The Pulse valuable, please share it with a friend, colleague, client, or advisor who follows the Manhattan luxury market.
Warm regards,
Carol
Carol Staab
Top 100 Sotheby's Global Real Estate Sales Advisor
Top 10 for Sotheby's Individuals Manhattan
My Recent Notable Sale Ritz Carlton $28.4M
Sotheby's International Realty.
Email: [email protected]
Cell: 917-273-7787
"The Pulse: Where data becomes insight. And insight drives results."
Website: CarolStaab.Com
Subscribe to the Pulse Here
|
