Greetings!

Last week, Manhattan’s $4 million-plus market rebounded sharply from the July 4th slowdown, rising 88% from 16 to 30 signed contracts.

This week, activity settled at 20 contracts, down 33% from that elevated post-holiday week. The context matters.

Thirty contracts reflected an unusually strong rebound from a holiday-depressed base—not a new weekly baseline. For context, I use 20 weekly contracts as the benchmark for a healthy Manhattan $4 million-plus market, particularly in midsummer.

The correct interpretation is not that demand suddenly fell by one-third.

The market normalized.

The broader picture remains constructive. Pending sales are ahead of last year, inventory has increased only modestly, and substantially fewer properties are leaving the market.

The diagnosis: Buyers remain active, but highly selective. Properties that justify their price through quality, presentation, positioning, and strategic marketing continue to attract attention.

Market Snapshot | Manhattan $4M+

20 contracts signed | ▼ 33% from 30 last week
22 new listings | ▼ 27% from 30
33 listings went off market | ▲ 32% from 25
$138.5 million in asking-price volume | ▼ 41% from $234.8 million
3 contracts at $10M+ | 15% of activity
3 new development contracts | 15% of activity

This week’s decline follows an 88% post–July 4th rebound. The return to 20 contracts represents normalization to a healthy seasonal pace—not a sudden deterioration in demand.

30-Day Market View

Over the past 30 days:

102 contracts signed | ▼ 8.9% from 112 last year
152 new listings | ▲ 4.8% from 145
141 listings went off market | ▼ 22.5% from 182

Contract activity is modestly below last year, while inventory has increased only slightly.

At the same time, 22.5% fewer properties went off market. Although off-market data does not tell us why every listing was removed, the sharp decline is consistent with fewer properties falling out of active marketing—and more sellers remaining in position to secure a buyer.

Taken together, the numbers point to a functioning but selective market in which properly priced and positioned properties continue to transact.

Chart of the Week | Pending Sales Show Underlying Strength

See the chart in box chart boxes

Weekly contract totals can be volatile. Pending sales provide a broader view of the market’s direction.

There are currently 525 pending sales above $4 million:

▼ 5.7% from last month
▲ 8.9% from last year
▲ 33.9% year-to-date

The monthly decline reflects the normal seasonal transition from the spring market into summer. The more significant signal is that pending sales remain well ahead of last year’s pace.

This is not a market accelerating at spring’s speed—but neither is it losing its footing. It is a healthy summer market supported by resilient, discerning demand.

Market Diagnosis | The Emerging New-Development Premium

Manhattan prices may have remained broadly flat over the past decade, but that headline number masks an important divide between new development and resale.

Jonathan Miller—veteran appraiser, market analyst, and author of Housing Notes—recently argued that new-development prices could accelerate meaningfully over the next several years. With luxury inventory down roughly 35%, construction costs rising, and cash buyers dominating the high end, he believes new development is positioned to outperform the broader Manhattan market.

His analogy is simple: new development and resale are much like new and pre-owned cars. Some buyers specifically want something new—and will pay a premium for it.

The supply side helps explain why that premium may grow. Higher interest rates have made projects harder to finance. Land remains expensive. Labor costs continue to rise. Fewer developments are penciling out, limiting the number of new residences likely to reach the market.

My diagnosis

That scarcity may create an important opportunity for a select group of resale sellers.

Some prospective ultra-luxury buyers are already paying substantial premiums for temporary rentals and sublets while they wait for their ideal residence to come to market. Yet inventory at the highest end of the rental market is also exceptionally limited.

They are being squeezed from both directions: too little purchase inventory and too few suitable rental alternatives.

As the cost and inconvenience of waiting increase, a beautifully renovated, turnkey resale in a premier building and location may become increasingly compelling—even to a buyer who initially preferred new development.

But not every resale will benefit.

The opportunity belongs to properties that can compete with new development on the qualities luxury buyers value most:

Condition. Design. Service. Privacy. Views. Location. Overall experience.

Exceptional resales should not be positioned solely against other resales. In an increasingly supply-constrained market, they may also be competing for—and attracting—the new-development buyer.

Property Type Breakdown

Condominiums: 12 contracts | 60%
Co-ops: 5 contracts | 25%
Townhouses: 3 contracts | 15%

Condominiums accounted for three out of every five luxury contracts signed this week.

Neighborhood Performance

Midtown: 9 contracts | 45%
Upper East Side: 5 contracts | 25%
Downtown: 4 contracts | 20%
Upper West Side: 2 contracts | 10%

Midtown led the market, representing nearly half of this week’s luxury activity.

Pricing Trends

Eight of the twenty contracts—40% of the market—were signed after at least one price reduction.

The median discount was 6%.

Buyers continue to pay premium prices for exceptional properties. They simply expect the price to be supported by the residence, the building, and current market conditions.

$ 4M+ Market Indicators

Market Pulse: 2.13

Climate Index: 1.32

▼ 22.4% week over week
▲ 46.7% year over year

Easy Seller Threshold: 1.27

Challenging Seller Threshold: 0.57

The Climate Index remains just above the Easy Seller threshold, indicating favorable—but highly strategic—conditions for sellers.

$10M+ Market Indicators

The ultra-luxury market recorded 3 contracts, representing 15% of total activity.

Market Pulse: 0.65

Climate Index: 0.90

▼ 31.3% week over week
▲ 23.3% year over year

Easy Seller Threshold: 0.87

Challenging Seller Threshold: 0.37

The $10 million-plus market moderated following last week’s stronger activity, but the Climate Index remains slightly above its Easy Seller threshold, signaling continued demand for exceptional trophy properties.

The Market Pulse measures the balance between supply and demand. The Climate Index compares current conditions with historical seller-friendly and challenging-market thresholds.

Top 2 Contracts | See All 20 Contracts

1. One High Line | 500 West 18th Street, Residence 26B West

Asking Price: $14,550,000

New Development Condominium | Chelsea

4 Bedrooms | 4.5 Baths

3,839 SF | $3,790 PSF

2. 655 Sixth Avenue, Penthouse B

Asking Price: $12,250,000

Condominium | Chelsea

4 Bedrooms | 3.5 Baths

4,819 SF | $2,542 PSF

121 days on market | $500,000 price reduction

Seller Advice

A healthy market does not guarantee a successful sale.

For a best-in-class resale, the competitive set may now extend beyond neighboring properties to include a limited supply of new development. The residence must therefore be presented and marketed at a comparable standard.

When I diagnose a listing that is not generating meaningful activity, the answer usually comes back to four fundamentals:

Pricing. Presentation. Positioning. Marketing.

Together, they determine how the market perceives a property—and whether buyers act.

Buyer Advice

Buyers who prefer new development should consider the full cost of waiting.

Future supply may remain limited. Prices per square foot may rise. The right project could still be several years away. In the meantime, suitable ultra-luxury rental and sublet inventory is also scarce and expensive.

A best-in-class resale may offer the design, service, privacy, and immediate availability a buyer wants—without the financial and practical burden of waiting indefinitely.

Know the building. Study the pricing history. Evaluate the full cost of ownership—and the full cost of postponing a decision.

Final Thoughts

This week’s decline from 30 contracts to 20 is not the most important market story.

Last week’s 30 contracts represented an 88% rebound from the July 4th slowdown. This week’s 20 contracts represent a return to the established benchmark of a healthy Manhattan luxury market.

Beyond the weekly numbers, another story may be taking shape: constrained new-development supply could place increasing pressure on prices—and create an important opportunity for exceptional resales capable of attracting the same discerning buyer.

The data tells us what happened. The diagnosis reveals what it may mean for your next decision.

If you know others who may value the Pulse please share it with others.

Every property has a market position—and sometimes small strategic adjustments can have a significant impact on outcome. If you're considering a sale or would like an objective assessment of your property's positioning in today's Manhattan luxury market, I'd be pleased to provide a confidential consultation.

Warm regards,

Carol

Carol Staab

Ranked by Real Trends -Top 1.5% of real estate professionals nationwide

Ranked by Real Trends #48 in NYC & #5 for individuals Sotheyb's NYC

Top 100 Sotheby's Company Wide Global Real Estate Sales Advisor

My Notable Sale Ritz Carlton $28.4M

Sotheby's International Realty.

Email: [email protected]

Cell: 917-273-7787