Greetings!

Twenty-one Manhattan properties priced at $4 million and over entered contract this week.

That is just above the industry benchmark of 20 contracts generally associated with a healthy Manhattan luxury market—an encouraging result during one of the slowest periods of the year.

Last week, 20 contracts were signed. This week, 21.

Buyers are still active, but selective. Properties that are priced correctly, well presented and clearly positioned continue to be rewarded.

At the same time, sellers are stepping away from the public market in unusually large numbers. Over the past 30 days, 350 luxury listings went off market, compared with 149 during the comparable period last year.

That divergence—steady contracts and sharply higher withdrawals—is this week’s story.

The numbers tell us what happened. The diagnosis tells us what it means.

Weekly Market Snapshot | Manhattan $4M+

21 contracts signed | ▲ 5% from 20 last week
12 new listings | ▼ 14% from 14 last week
59 listings went off market | ▼ 3% from 61 last week
$194.2 million asking-price volume | ▲ 56% from $124.5 million last week
5 contracts above $10M | 24% of this week's contracts
3 new-development contracts | 14% of this week's contracts

The contract count is healthy.

The stronger signal is the jump in asking-price volume, reflecting a better showing at the upper end of the market.

Five contracts above $10 million is a solid result for August.

30-Day Market View

98 contracts signed | ▲ 5.4% from 93 last year
91 new listings | ▼ 9.9% from 101 last year
350 listings went off market | ▲ 134.9% from 149 last year

Buyer activity is ahead of last year, while new inventory is lower.

The standout is off-market activity, which has increased nearly 135%.

This is not simply a market where buyers disappeared for August.

It is a market where many sellers chose not to compete.

Market Diagnosis | The August Off-Market Effect

August is traditionally quieter, and many sellers would rather pause their marketing than continue accumulating additional Days on Market.

Some listings will remain off market.

Many will return after Labor Day.

And some remain quietly available through brokers and brokerage networks.

So off market does not always mean unavailable.

This also helps explain the sharp decline in the Listing Climate.

When withdrawals surge, the index can fall quickly even if buyer activity has not.

That is exactly what is happening now.

Contracts are up 5.4% year over year.
Off-market activity is up nearly 135%.

The August Listing Climate needs context.

Property Type Breakdown

Condominiums: 16 contracts | 76%
Co-ops: 4 contracts | 19%
Townhouses: 1 contract | 5%

Condominiums dominated activity this week, reflecting continued demand for flexibility, amenities, newer product and ease of ownership.

Neighborhood Performance

Midtown: 7 contracts | 33%

Upper West Side: 6 contracts | 29%

Upper East Side: 4 contracts | 19%

Downtown: 4 contracts | 19%

Activity was broadly distributed across Manhattan, another sign that buyers are still moving when they see the right combination of property, location and value.

New Development

3 contracts | 14% of the market

New development represented a modest share of contract count, but it produced the largest deal of the week.

Chart of the Week | The $4M+ Pricing Penalty

Every week, I feature one chart that helps explain what is happening beneath the headline numbers.

This week’s chart appears in the chart section below.

For Manhattan properties priced at $4 million and over:

Under 60 Days on Market: 0.5% Pricing Penalty
Over 120 Days on Market: 11.0% Pricing Penalty
Median Listing Discount: 6.2%

My Diagnosis

The first weeks on market matter.

When a property launches at a price buyers understand, with strong presentation and a clear value proposition, the seller has the best opportunity to create urgency.

Once a listing sits, buyers begin studying the history and questioning the pricing. Negotiating leverage shifts.

Sellers who price intelligently from the beginning are often protecting value—not giving it away.

Market Pulse & Listing Climate

$4M+ Market

Market Pulse: 2.95

▲ 0.4 points month over month

▲ 0.9 points year to date

▲ 1.8 points year over year

Listing Climate: 0.50

▼ 61.2% month over month

▼ 13.8% year over year

Challenging market threshold: 0.57

Easy market threshol : 1.27

The Market Pulse remains constructive, while the Listing Climate has fallen below the challenging threshold.

The surge in August withdrawals helps explain the divergence.

My read: the $4M+ market is more resilient than the Listing Climate alone suggests.

$10M+ Market

Market Pulse: -0.85

▼ 1.6 points month over month

▼ 1.6 points year over year

Listing Climate: 0.12

▼ 86.2% month over month

▼ 66.7% year over year

Challenging market threshold: 0.38

Easy market threshold: 0.86

Above $10 million, the picture is softer.

August withdrawals are part of the story, but the negative Market Pulse also points to greater buyer leverage.

Yet five $10M+ contracts were signed this week.

The buyers are there. They can simply afford to be highly selective.

Top Two Contracts | See All 21 Contracts

1. 1122 Madison Avenue, Residence 19 | Upper East Side

Asking Price: $40,500,000

New Development Condominium

5 Bedrooms | 5.5 Baths

5,251 SF

$7,713 PSF

2. 150 West 12th Street, Residence 3W | Greenwich Village

Asking Price: $18,995,000

Condominium | The Greenwich Lane — Recent New Development

5 Bedrooms | 5.5 Baths | 10 Rooms

4,206 SF

$4,516 PSF

608 Days on Market

Seller Advice | Use August Strategically

If your property is off market and you intend to return after Labor Day, use these weeks to reassess:

Pricing — Is it aligned with today’s market?
Presentation — Does it compete with the best alternatives?
Positioning — Is the value immediately clear?
Marketing — Are you giving the right buyers a reason to act?

Sometimes the problem is price.

Sometimes it is presentation, positioning or marketing.

A fresh listing date is not a new strategy.

A successful relaunch should feel different.

Buyer Advice | Look Beyond the Public Market

With 350 $4M+ properties going off market during the past 30 days, consumer websites are not necessarily showing every property that may be available.

Some sellers remain open to the right conversation.

Buyers should also distinguish between a stale listing and a flawed property. They are not the same.

Know the building. Study the pricing history. Understand the competition and the seller’s position.

That is where opportunity often appears.

What I’m Watching | Pied-à-Terre Tax- Judge Approves Temporary Halt!

The new pied-à-terre tax is already facing a legal challenge over how the city is implementing it.

For Manhattan luxury real estate, the more important question is whether the tax begins to influence buyer behavior—particularly among second-home and international purchasers.

So far, I am not seeing that in this week’s contract activity. Twenty-one $4M+ contracts were signed, including five above $10 million.

I’ll be watching both the legal challenge and whether the market begins to show any measurable response.

Read The Real Deal article here → [LINK]

NY Post - Judge Temporarily Halts Pied-A-Terre Tax [Link]

Final Thoughts

Twenty-one contracts during one of the quietest periods of the year is a healthy result. Five contracts were above $10 million. Asking-price volume reached approximately $194 million.

And over the past 30 days, contracts are 5.4% ahead of last year.

At the same time, 350 luxury listings have gone off market—nearly 135% more than during the comparable period last year.

The picture is clear: