Greetings!

Last week I wrote that the market did not slow down — the calendar did.

This week the market answered.

Twenty-six contracts signed in the final week of August — up 62.5% from 16 the week before. Four deals above $10 million. Asking-price volume more than doubled. By every measure, Manhattan's $4M+ luxury market did not wait for September. It arrived early.

The seasonal playbook says the last week of August should be quiet. This was the opposite. And the data beneath the headline is just as telling. New listings ticked up while off-market withdrawals dropped by half — sellers are coming back and buyers are meeting them.

If your property is entering or returning to the Manhattan luxury market this fall, the data in this issue will show you exactly where things stand. If you want that analysis applied specifically to your property, I welcome that conversation. [Email me here]

Weekly Market Snapshot | Manhattan $4M+

26 contracts signed | ▲ 62.5% from 16 last week
15 new listings | ▲ 15.4% from 13 last week
20 listings went off market | ▼ 52.4% from 42 last week
$208.6M asking-price volume | ▲ 113.1% from $97.9M last week
4 contracts above $10M | 15.4% of contracts | up from 1 / 6.3% last week
5 new-development contracts | 19.2% of contracts

The reversal was broad-based. More contracts, more new listings, fewer withdrawals. The market shifted from retreat to engagement in a single week.

Above $10 million, four properties entered contract — up from just one last week. That segment accounted for most of the surge in total asking-price volume.

30-Day Market View

94 contracts signed vs. 90 last year | ▲ 4.4%
69 new listings vs. 81 last year | ▼ 14.8%
211 listings went off market vs. 129 last year | ▲ 63.6%

Last week, 30-day contract activity was running 6.2% behind last year. This week it flipped — now 4.4% ahead. That is a meaningful shift in a seven-day window.

New listings remain constrained, running nearly 15% below last year. Off-market withdrawals are still elevated at 63.6% above 2025, though they have moderated from the 80.8% pace reported last week.

The picture is becoming clearer. Demand has overtaken last year's pace. Supply continues to tighten. Buyers who are waiting for more inventory may find themselves competing for less.

Year-to-Date Market View | January 1 – August 30

988 contracts signed vs. 958 last year | ▲ 3.1%
1,542 new listings vs. 1,732 last year | ▼ 11.0%
1,088 listings went off market vs. 1,119 last year | ▼ 2.8%

This is the long view — and it confirms what the weekly and 30-day numbers are signaling.

Year to date, contracts are running 3.1% ahead of 2025 on 11% fewer listings. The market is absorbing inventory at a faster rate with less to choose from. Off-market activity is essentially flat year over year.

For sellers, the takeaway is straightforward. Demand has not weakened. Supply has. Properly priced and positioned properties are being absorbed. The question is not whether buyers are active — it is whether your property is positioned to compete for their attention.

Market Diagnosis | August Defied the Calendar

The seasonal expectation for the final week of August is thin. The actual result — 26 contracts, up 62.5% — is anything but.

I would not overweight a single week. But I would pay close attention to what it confirms. The 30-day contract pace has now crossed above last year. Year-to-date activity is ahead of 2025. And supply continues to contract.

What I see is a market entering September with more momentum than it had going into fall last year. That is good news for sellers who have done the work — pricing, presentation, competitive positioning. For those who have not, a rising market does not fix a flawed strategy. It simply makes the gap between the properties that sell and the ones that sit more visible.

Property Type Breakdown

Condominiums: 11 contracts | 42.3%
Co-ops: 7 contracts | 26.9%
Townhouses: 8 contracts | 30.8%

Townhouses were the standout — eight contracts, up from three last week, nearly a third of the market. Condos still led but their share dropped from 56.3% to 42.3%. Co-ops nearly doubled in volume from four to seven while holding roughly the same share.

The breadth across property types is a healthy signal. This was not a one-segment week.

Neighborhood Performance

Upper East Side: 11 contracts | 42.3%
Midtown: 9 contracts | 34.6%
Downtown: 3 contracts | 11.5%
Upper West Side: 3 contracts | 11.5%

The Upper East Side dominated — from 2 contracts last week to 11. Midtown held strong. Downtown and the Upper West Side both pulled back from 25% to 11.5%.

The East Side ran the market this week. That concentration is worth watching as September unfolds.

New Development

5 contracts | 19.2% of the market

Consistent with last week's share but higher volume — five deals compared with three. New development accounted for roughly one in five contracts.

Market Pulse & Listing Climate

$4M+ Market

Market Pulse: 3.65

▲ 1.4 pts from last month
▲ 1.5 pts year to date
▲ 1.4 pts from last year

Listing Climate: 0.51

▼ 60.5% from last month
▼ 12.1% from last year

Challenging market threshold: 0.57
Easy market threshold: 1.27

The Market Pulse continues to strengthen across every timeframe — monthly, year to date and year over year. At 3.65, the $4M+ market is performing well above seasonal norms.

The Listing Climate sits below the challenging-market threshold at 0.51. That compression reflects the elevated off-market withdrawals that have characterized the summer. As those listings return in September, this metric should begin to normalize.

The Market Pulse remains the more reliable signal.

$10M+ Market

Market Pulse: 0.35

▲ 1.1 pts from last month
▲ 0.2 pts year to date
▼ 0.8 pts from last year

Listing Climate: 0.12

▼ 86.2% from last month
▼ 66.7% from last year
Challenging market threshold: 0.38
Easy market threshold: 0.86

The $10M+ Market Pulse improved meaningfully from last month and remains in positive territory, though it is still running below last year.

The Listing Climate at 0.12 is extremely compressed. This week's four contracts above $10M — up from one — suggest the August data may not be capturing the activity now taking place. Buyers at this level have extensive choice and zero reason to compromise on pricing or presentation.

Top Two Contracts | See All 26 Contracts

#1. 217 West 57th Street, Unit 68E — Central Park Tower | Midtown Center Asking Price: $20,500,000 New Development Condominium 3 Bedrooms | 3.5 Baths | 3,364 SF $6,093 PSF 914 Days to Contract

#2. 988 Fifth Avenue, Unit 6 | Upper East Side Asking Price: $18,500,000 Condominium 5 Bedrooms | 4.5 Baths | 3,550 SF $5,211 PSF 618 Days to Contract

Behind the Deal | Premium Offer Before the Launch

Last week I negotiated a $5.5M all-cash deal for a top-floor three-bedroom in my investor client's Downtown condo — before the property officially hit the market. I represented both sides of the transaction.

The buyer was from inside the building. He opened at $5.4M and told me that at $5.4M he was overpaying — but he wanted the apartment. I appreciated the interest. I did not accept the framing.

Here is what the data told me. A unit six floors lower in the same building went into contract near its $5.25M asking price in just 12 days. Only three three-bedroom units were actively listed in the neighborhood at any price. And the inventory chart for the area showed supply at historic lows.

I presented the buyer with three pieces of evidence — the comp, the competing inventory and the supply data. At $5.4M he was not overpaying. He was underestimating his competition. At $5.5M he secured the apartment before anyone else had a chance to see it. That was worth the difference.

The seller made a deliberate calculation. Accept a premium all-cash offer with a quick close and no cost to prep, paint or stage — or go to market and almost certainly receive $5.5M or more, but with time, expense and uncertainty attached. She chose certainty at the right number.

Both clients got what they needed. The buyer got the apartment. The seller got the price. Neither outcome happened because I split the difference. It happened because the data pointed to one number — and both sides could see it.

Chart of the Week | Monthly Price Cuts — The Cost of Getting It Wrong

This week's chart tracks monthly price cuts across the Manhattan $4M+ market.

In July, 80 luxury listings reduced their asking price — down 45.9% from the prior month and 8.0% below last year. The trend is improving. Fewer sellers are being forced to reprice mid-campaign.

But the median cut tells the sharper story: 6.30%.

On this week's median contract price of $6.47 million, a 6.30% reduction is approximately $408,000. That is not a strategic adjustment. That is the cost of a pricing misdiagnosis at launch.

Price cuts decline when sellers get the diagnosis right before they list — not after ninety days without an offer. The chart confirms that discipline is improving across the market. But for the sellers who still get it wrong, the correction is significant.

Seller Advice | The Market Is Not Waiting for You

Twenty-six contracts in the last week of August. The fall market has started — whether your property is ready or not. Contracts are running ahead of last year on tighter inventory. The sellers who did the diagnostic work before relaunching will have an advantage. The ones relying on a new listing date to do the work for them will find out quickly that it does not.

Buyer Advice | Move or Watch

The late-August window I described last week just closed. Twenty-six contracts in one week, constrained inventory and several deals going to contract in under 50 days. If you have done your research and know what you want, this is the moment to act. If you are still browsing, the fall market will not wait for you to catch up.

Final Thoughts

Last week the market was quiet and I told you not to read it as a signal. This week it roared back and I would offer the same counsel — one week does not make a trend.

But when the weekly, 30-day and year-to-date data all point in the same direction, that is no longer a single data point. That is a pattern. Contracts are ahead of last year. Supply is contracting. And the final week of August just produced more activity than the market had any seasonal reason to expect.

September has arrived. The question is whether your property has arrived with it.

If your Manhattan property did not produce the result you expected this spring — or you are preparing to enter the market for the first time this fall — the time to evaluate your strategy is now. My Real Estate Doctor Diagnostic examines the full picture: pricing, competitive positioning, online presentation, building performance, comparable sales, current market conditions and buyer response.

The goal is not simply to identify what is wrong. It is to understand precisely what needs to change.

I welcome confidential conversations with owners who expect more from the process.

[Email me here]

If you know someone who would value the Pulse, I would be grateful if you shared it.

Warm regards,

Carol

Carol Staab

Sotheby's International Realty

Ranked by Real Trends -Top 1.5% of real estate professionals nationwide

Ranked by Real Trends #48 in NYC & #5 for individuals Sotheyb's NYC

Top 100 Sotheby's Company Wide Global Real Estate Sales Advisor

My Notable Sale Ritz Carlton $28.4M