The Pulse - Manhattan Luxury Market 10/18/24

The $10M+ market segment made a powerful statement with a commanding 56% market share and $4M and over contracts experience another robust week. As we dive into the numbers and trends, let’s explore how buyers and sellers can capitalize on this thriving market.

Last Week’s Highlights:

• 25 contracts were signed, down 10% from the previous high, but still signaling strong demand.
• Contract signings are up 10% year-to-date this October.
• New listings surged 46% last week, although they remain down 18% year-to-date.
• Downtown reclaimed the lead with 48% market share, while the Upper East and Upper West Sides tied for second with 20% market share each.

Explore the accompanying visuals for detailed insights on market activity and pricing trends, providing a comprehensive view of where the luxury market stands.

Big News: $10M+ Market Surge

The spotlight is on the $10M+ market, capturing 56% of contracts signed last week. While new developments contributed a 28% share, outperforming the typical average, discounted deals also played a role—32% of contracts were signed with a median discount of 7%. These figures present both opportunity and insight for buyers and sellers navigating today’s market.

Top 2 Contracts of the Week: See all 25 Contracts

#1- The Highline – 500 W 18th St, #32D

• Asking: $23.6M
• 4 beds, 4.5 baths
• 5,210 sq. ft. | $4,529/sq. ft.
• 227 days on market

#2- 555 W 22nd St, #21AW

• Asking: $21.5M
• 5 beds, 5.5 baths
• 4,091 sq. ft. | $5,255/sq. ft.
• 847 days on market

Macro-Economic Snapshot:

Mortgage rates edged higher, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.60%, up 20 basis points from last week.

Mortgage rates are expected to remain above 6% throughout 2024, tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.

The next Federal Reserve rate decision is in November, with experts expecting a 25-basis point cut if inflationary pressures continue.

The Pulse Market Index:

Currently at 1.65 points, the Market Pulse has risen 0.4 points over the last month and is up 1.8 points year-over-year, indicating a strong seller’s market.

Market Perspective:

The luxury market’s resilience continues, particularly in the $10M+ segment, which has outperformed the sub-$10M range. Many buyers are holding out for lower rates, while sellers are reluctant to give up their low-rate mortgages. However, as the number of sellers in this position declines, we can expect renewed activity in the under-$10M segment.

For Sellers, the window to secure a deal is now—before Thanksgiving. If you’re not getting offers, the issue is likely pricing, presentation, or a product problem (location or building). Conducting an in-depth analysis can help you course-correct and position your property for success.

A Case Study for Buyers:

Recently, a buyer stopped the bidding process on a well-priced apartment, claiming to be considering another option. It was a tactic to push the seller to lower the price, but it backfired when a near-asking price offer came in from another buyer. The original buyers lost out on a home they loved, proving that in a competitive market, overplaying your hand can cost you.

Key Takeaways:

• The $10M+ market continues to thrive, presenting opportunities for both buyers and sellers.
• If you’re a seller, now is the time to act. Overpricing or poor presentation can cause your property to fail to sell this fall.
• Buyers should move quickly when they find a home they love, as waiting too long could mean missing out.

If you want tailored insights on how these market trends impact your property’s value, reach out for a personalized strategy session.

Conclusion:

Manhattan’s luxury market remains robust, with contract activity holding steady despite rising mortgage rates. The $10M+ segment is setting the pace, and while new listings have increased, inventory remains lower than in previous years, offering sellers a prime opportunity.

For those of you ready to take advantage of this moment, let’s discuss how these trends can help you achieve your real estate goals. Whether you’re buying or selling, positioning yourself strategically in this market is key. Email me here with any of your questions.

May your real estate dreams and goals become a reality.