The Pulse - Manhattan Luxury Market 10/22/24

The Manhattan Luxury Market Soars: Signed Contracts Are Up 22% in October, New Development Dominates with 55% Market Share. Despite some weekly fluctuations the market continues to gain momentum last week especially in new developments.

Key Highlights:

• 23 contracts were signed last week, down 8% from the prior week, but maintaining a 22% year-over-year increase in October.
• Listings surged 59% last week after the holiday lull, though new listings are down 12% compared to October 2023.
• Condos took an 82% market share, dominating the $4M and over luxury sector.
• The Upper East Side claimed 40% of the market, overtaking Downtown due to a rush of new development sales.
• New developments captured a 55% market share, with the $10M+ segment holding 18%.
• The Market Pulse stands at 2.05, up 1.0 points from last month and 2.5 points higher than this time last year.
• 5 listings received discounts, with a median discount of 4.5%.

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Macro Market Insights:

Mortgage rates continue to rise despite the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points last month. The current average rate is 6.5%, up from two weeks ago, influenced by 10-year Treasury bond yields. Analysts anticipate a 30-90 day lag before rate cuts may impact mortgage rates, but rates are unlikely to drop below 6% this year.

The upcoming presidential election could temporarily impact sales—historically, Manhattan real estate sees a 2.5% dip, followed by a rebound post-election, according to data expert Jonathan Miller.

Market Perspective:

Sellers - two trends are driving the market:

1. Buyers are seeking larger apartments and are willing to pay premiums for new developments.
2. There’s a growing pool of affluent, all-cash buyers, bolstered by strong stock market and private equity performance.

To sell in this competitive environment, you need precision pricing, exceptional presentation, and a strategic marketing plan. Position your property to capture the attention of motivated buyers now.

Buyers: New listings jumped 59% last week, but the active season is winding down. Don’t let rising rates hold you back—you can always refinance when rates drop. Buying now gives you a competitive price before anticipated rate cuts and a market surge in 2025.

Top 2 Contracts of the Week: See all 23 contracts

#1- 27 E 22nd St, PH – $18.5M

• 5 bedrooms, 6.5 baths
• 7,143 sq ft ($3,989 psf)
• Price reduced by $10M three months ago
• On the market for 192 days
• Rupert Murdoch sold this penthouse at a 57% loss, a reminder of the risks tied to trendy new developments without sales history.

#2- 20 E 76th St, #14A at The Surrey – $24.25M

• 3 bedrooms, 4.5 baths
• 4,947 sq ft ($4,852 psf)
• On the market for 4 days
• This swift entry shows the demand for well-located new developments in prime locations.

Conclusion:

Manhattan’s luxury market continues to show resilience, driven by new developments and strong buyer demand. Sellers and buyers alike must be strategic to make the most of these evolving conditions.

May your real estate dreams and goals become a reality.

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