The Pulse - Manhattan Luxury Market 10/29/24

Manhattan’s luxury market is experiencing an extraordinary surge, with $4M+ contracts climbing 35% last week. The Henry, a new Upper West Side gem, commanded the spotlight with two penthouses over $20M leading contract activity. Welcome to the Pulse Manhattan $4M and Over Real Estate Market Report—your insider’s guide to Manhattan’s luxury real estate trends and strategies.

Market Highlights and Key Metrics

• 31 Contracts Signed: Last week’s 31 contracts represented a remarkable 35% increase over the previous week, with October’s activity similarly up 35% compared to the same time last year.
• New Listings Dip: Despite robust demand, new listings were down 2% last week and 9% lower than last October, signaling tightening inventory in Manhattan’s luxury segment.
• Market Leaders: Condos led with a dominant 71% share, while townhouses achieved a strong 16% market share—a notable presence given that they account for only 2% of Manhattan’s properties.
• Neighborhood Dynamics: Downtown held its lead with a 32% market share, while Midtown made an impressive showing at 26% due to a surge in contracts at Hudson Yards.
• High-Ticket Transactions: Properties over $10M represented 36% of market share, and new developments claimed 29%, with total sales volume reaching $2.76B—an 11% increase from the previous week.
• Discounts: Nine contracts saw price adjustments, with a median 7% discount from the original asking price.
• Market Pulse: Now at 1.7 points, the Market Pulse has risen 0.3 points from the past month and is up 2.2 points year-over-year, reflecting a stable, neutral market climate.

Macro Market Insights

Presidential Election Impact on Manhattan Real Estate

As we approach the election, many clients are asking how this might impact Manhattan real estate. A 20-year study by Jonathan Miller, a top data expert, shows that Manhattan sales typically dip 2.5% during election years, only to rebound by 8.5% the following year. However, with contract activity up 35% from last October, this cycle appears to be defying historical patterns. This trend underscores the resilience of the market and a unique opportunity to act on current momentum.

Mortgage Rates

Rates currently average 6.54%, a slight increase from last week. As rates hold steady, the importance of timing becomes even more critical for both buyers and sellers looking to secure optimal terms in today’s shifting market.

Market Perspective: Strategies for Sellers and Buyers

For Sellers

With contract activity 35% higher this October, you have increased leverage to get your home sold in today’s active market. As the brisk fall season is expected to taper by mid-November, now is the opportune time to close on a favorable deal. Condo sellers should remember that new developments often command premium prices; presenting your property as a well-priced, compelling alternative can attract buyers wary of new development risks, including potential construction or location issues that might erode premium values over time.

Co-op sellers should adopt a tailored marketing approach, emphasizing the architectural allure, history, superior layouts, and often more prestigious locations of co-ops. When priced correctly, co-ops offer significant value over condos, appealing to buyers who appreciate quality, legacy, and a sense of community. Co-ops tend to attract buyers who are willing to go through a vetting process to become part of a cohesive residential community, securing value compared to the higher-cost alternative of condo ownership.

For Buyers

The peak listing season is nearing its end, meaning inventory will likely slow in November. If you’re prepared to make a move, look for opportunities in listings that have been on the market for over 100 days—these often present significant negotiation potential as sellers look to close by year-end. Timing can be everything, and the right preparation now can help you secure a strong position when these opportunities emerge.

Top Contracts: The Henry Dominates - SEE ALL 31 CONTRACTS & PHOTOS

The Henry, an exquisite new development on the Upper West Side, set a high bar with its two remarkable penthouses leading last week’s contracts.

#1 -215 W 84th St, #PHA

• Developer: Naftali Group | Architect: Robert A.M. Stern
• Asking- $16.95M, 6 Bedrooms, 6.5 Baths, 6,679 Sq Ft, $4,035 PSF

#2- 215 W 84th St, #PHD

• Specs: $21.5M, 5 Bedrooms, 5.5 Baths, 5,314 Sq Ft, $4,045 PSF

Conclusion

The Manhattan luxury market continues to exhibit resilience and momentum, with strong contract activity and high sales volumes underpinning this October’s performance. Whether you’re positioning your property for sale or exploring purchasing opportunities, now is the time to make strategic moves as we approach year-end.

May your real estate dreams and goals become a reality.

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