Manhattan $4M & over luxury contracts skyrocket 76%. This November.
Welcome to this week’s edition of The Pulse, where data transforms into actionable insights for smart real estate decisions. November is shaping up to be a standout month in Manhattan’s luxury real estate market, with contracts surging 76% compared to the same period last year. This week, I’m also introducing the Climate Index, a new metric designed to empower sellers with deeper market insights. Here’s what you need to know.
Key Market Highlights
- Contracts Signed: 34 contracts last week, down 13% week-over-week but 70% above the benchmark for a healthy market. From November 1–16, luxury contracts in the $4M+ market surged 76% YoY, showcasing strong buyer confidence.
- Market Pulse: 1.6 – Neutral zone, up 3.1 points YoY but down 0.2 points from last month.
- Climate Index: Up 52.5% YoY, signaling a significantly warmer selling environment compared to last year.
- Condos’ Dominance: Condos claimed a commanding 74% market share, outpacing co-ops and townhouses.
- Neighborhood Dynamics: Downtown led with 35% market share, followed by the Upper East Side at 32%, buoyed by strong buyer demand.
- Discount Trends: 53% of contracts involved discounts, with a median discount of just 4%, reflecting more realistic pricing strategies among sellers.
- Inventory Insights: New listings rose 32% week-over-week but remain 17% lower than the same period last year. Factoring in contracts and off-market properties, the weekly increase turns negative, highlighting tight inventory.
Introducing the Climate Index
This week, I’m unveiling the Climate Index, a powerful new tool that helps sellers assess how favorable the market is for listing properties.
What Is It?
The Climate Index measures the ratio of signed contracts to listings removed from the market:
- A higher index indicates a warmer, more favorable market for sellers, with stronger buyer activity relative to listings being withdrawn.
- A lower index signals a cooler market, where fewer deals are being signed compared to properties exiting the market.
Why Does It Matter?
- Timing Advantage: Sellers can identify the most opportune moments to list.
- Strategic Positioning: Insights from the Climate Index can guide pricing and marketing strategies.
- Competitive Edge: Sellers gain a unique perspective on how their property fits into broader market conditions.
Currently, the Climate Index is up 52.5% YoY, indicating a significantly warmer selling environment compared to last year—making this fall an ideal time to list.
Macro Market Insights
- Mortgage Rates: After a six-week climb, mortgage rates have stabilized, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.78%.
- Federal Reserve Outlook: Fed Chair Powell indicated that while rates may decline further in the long term, they are unlikely to see significant reductions in the short term.
What does this mean for Manhattan? Despite economic headwinds, the city’s luxury market continues to show stability and remains an attractive haven for buyers seeking value and long-term growth in high-quality assets.
Local Market Insight: Wall Street Bonuses Projected to Increase by 35%
According to projections released by Johnson and Associates, a leading compensation consulting firm, Wall Street bonuses are expected to increase by 35% this year.
Why It Matters to Manhattan Real Estate:
- Higher Budgets for Resale Properties: Buyers can allocate more funds to secure their ideal properties, particularly in the $4M+ resale market.
- Accelerated Buying Timelines: Increased liquidity allows buyers to act faster, particularly in the first quarter when bonuses are distributed.
- Boost to the $10M+ Segment: Bonuses often drive activity in the ultra-luxury sector, enabling buyers to make substantial down payments or all-cash offers.
Wall Street bonuses have historically driven seasonal spikes in Manhattan’s luxury real estate market. For sellers, this is a prime time to ensure their properties are well-positioned to capture this anticipated wave of high-net-worth buyers.
Market Perspective & Insights
For Sellers:
- If your property isn’t generating offers, reassess its positioning. Correct pricing, presentation, and marketing are critical.
- Properties that don’t secure contracts before Thanksgiving should consider being temporarily removed from the market. Rebranding and repositioning in the spring can maximize results.
For Buyers:
- November and December offer excellent opportunities for value-driven deals.
- With 53% of contracts discounted, motivated sellers are more open to negotiations as they aim to close deals before year-end.
Top 2 Contracts of the Week- SEE ALL 34 CONTRACTS
#1- 15 Central Park West, #PH40A/6K
- Asking Price: $39M | Resale Condo
- Details: 5 beds, 5.5 baths, 6,846 sq. ft. ($5,696/sq. ft.)
- Days On Market : $6M price reduction eight months ago; 379 days on market.
#2- 111 West 57th Street, #68
- Asking Price: $20.25M | Resale Condo
- Details: 3 beds, 3.5 baths, 3,873 sq. ft. ($5,696/sq. ft.)
- Days On Market : 122 days on market.
Take Action and Explore More
- Expired Listings Video: Watch my YouTube video to learn how to reposition and rebrand expired listings to achieve results in a competitive market.
- Exclusive Report Offer: Contact me to receive a custom report highlighting the top 3 neighborhoods for luxury discounts or an analysis of your property’s market positioning.
- Share Your Thoughts: What metrics or topics would you like to see featured in The Pulse? Reply to this email and let me know!
Conclusion
The Manhattan luxury market continues to thrive, with strong contract activity, modest discounts, and rising demand for resale properties. Sellers should take advantage of the favorable market conditions highlighted by the Climate Index, while buyers can capitalize on seasonal negotiation opportunities.
For personalized advice or to receive a custom report on your property, building, or neighborhood, reach out today to discover your property’s true potential.
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