Manhattan $4M & over contracts surge 73% as November outperforms expectations. Welcome to this week’s edition of The Pulse, where data transforms into actionable insights for smart real estate decisions. Manhattan’s $4M & over luxury market is thriving, with signed contracts surging 73% compared to the same period last year. Are you ready to seize the opportunities this recovery presents? The Upper East Side is emerging as a powerhouse, fueled by strong new development activity, while the $10M+ market is capturing significant attention. Here’s what the data reveals—and how it can guide your next real estate move.
Key Market Highlights
- Contracts Signed:
- 26 contracts were signed last week, 30% above the benchmark for a healthy market. However, this marks a 24% decrease from the prior week.
- November 1–23: A remarkable 73% YoY increase in signed contracts compared to the same period in 2023.
- Market Pulse:
- 1.9, up 0.2 points month-over-month and 3.3 points YoY, signaling growing buyer confidence and heightened activity.
- Climate Index:
- 0.91 (October 2024), down 10.8% month-over-month but up 54.2% YoY.
- What it means: This metric analyzes the ratio of signed contracts to listings removed from the market, offering sellers insights into how favorable the listing environment is.An increasing index signals an easier market and a decreasing index a more challenging market. Buyers - use this index to assess seller motivation and to anticipate shifting market dynamics.
- Condos’ Dominance: Condos claimed a commanding 75% share of last week’s contracts.
- Neighborhood Dynamics:
- Upper East Side: Surpassed Downtown with 50% of the market share, driven by robust new development activity.
- Downtown: Accounted for 25%, maintaining its position as a core luxury market.
- $10M+ and New Developments Drive Activity:
- New developments accounted for 42% of last week’s contracts.
- The $10M+ market captured 54% of total signed contracts, reflecting strong demand for ultra-luxury properties.
- Discount Trends: Discounts were a minor factor, with only six contracts involving price reductions. The median discount was 7%.
- Inventory Insights:
- New listings dropped 31% week-over-week.
- November 1–22: New listings are down 11% YoY.
- When factoring in contracts and off-market properties, the weekly inventory change remains net negative.
- Macro Market Insights
- Mortgage Rates:
- The average 30-year fixed rate climbed for the fourth consecutive week, reaching 6.90%, the highest since July. However, mortgage applications rose by 1.7%, reflecting persistent buyer interest.
- Local Market Insights
- Manhattan’s $100M+ market is poised for a historic year, with record- breaking sales including:
- 217 W 57- Central Park Tower: A penthouse closed at $115M.
- 730 Fifth Avenue-Aman New York: Penthouse sold for $135M.
- What this means: These sales underscore Manhattan’s resilience and its appeal to high-net-worth buyers seeking trophy assets.
Market Perspectives & Actionable Insights
For Sellers:
- If your property hasn’t received an offer or signed contract, now is the time to reassess.
- Consider temporarily withdrawing your listing after Thanksgiving to rebrand and reposition for a spring 2025 market that’s expected to be robust.
- Partner with a broker who can deliver deep market insights and exceptional marketing strategies to maximize your property’s potential.
For Buyers:
- Take advantage of year-end opportunities.
- Properties that have been on the market for 100+ days or experienced price cuts are prime targets for negotiation. Now is the perfect time to secure value-driven deals.
#1- 140 Jane Street, PH11
- Asking Price: $45M
- Details: New development condo in the West Village. 5 beds, 5.5 baths, 5,653 sq. ft. ($7,960/sq. ft.)
- Why it matters: This sale exemplifies the continued demand for large-scale, ultra-luxury properties in premier locations like the West Village.
#2- 20 East 76th Street, #15A (Surrey Hotel Residences)
- Asking Price: $25.745M
- Details: New development condo. 4 beds, 4.5 baths, 4,997 sq. ft. ($5,152/sq. ft.)
- Why it matters: The Upper East Side’s new development activity is driving significant market momentum, reaffirming its appeal to high-end buyers.
Conclusion
November is shaping up to be a very strong month, signaling that Manhattan’s luxury market has rebounded from last year’s doldrums. Sellers, this recovery offers a prime opportunity to achieve exceptional results, while buyers can seize value-driven opportunities in a competitive yet thriving market.
Take advantage of this recovery and utilize the actionable insights provided in The Pulse to make informed decisions tailored to your real estate goals.
For personalized advice or to receive a custom market report, reach out today. Let’s turn your real estate dreams into reality.
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Happy Thanksgiving to all the US Pulse readers!
