The Pulse - Manhattan Luxury Market 12/17/24

This December, Manhattan’s luxury real estate market is anything but typical. Contracts for $4M+ properties have surged an impressive 57% year-over-year from December 1–15, as buyers remain confident and motivated. Sellers, too, are acting strategically, with new listings up 30% YoY, aiming to capture demand and stay ahead of the competitive spring season. With inventory net negative, prices are holding steady, creating opportunities for buyers and sellers alike.

Welcome to this edition of The Pulse, your trusted source for turning market data into actionable insights to make smart real estate decisions.

This week, we’ll dive into the market dynamics shaping opportunities for both sellers and buyers, from key neighborhood trends to the most significant deals of the week. With my data-driven approach and strategic expertise, I’ll guide you through how to navigate these unique conditions with confidence and success. Let’s get started.

Key Takeaways

• Contracts Surge: 32 contracts were signed last week, a slight 6% dip from the prior week but a remarkable 57% increase from Dec 1–15 last year.
• Listings Trend: Listings entering the market dropped 41% last week. However, over the past two weeks, new listings are up 30% YoY as sellers aim to leverage strong buyer activity and get ahead of the busier spring market.
• Net Negative Inventory Impact: Despite the rise in new listings, inventory remains net negative, ensuring no downward pressure on prices.
• Neighborhood Breakdown:
  • Downtown led with 41% of the market share, continuing its dominance as the top destination for luxury buyers.
  • The Upper East Side accounted for 31%, as the renaissance of the neighborhood continues to grow, fueled by new development sales and high-quality co-op and condo transactions.
• Market Metrics Hold Strong:
  • Market Pulse: 2.4, up 0.6 points this month and 3.5 points YoY.
  • Climate Index: 0.96, up 5.5% this month and 108.7% YoY.
• Sales Volume: Total sales volume - $270,348,000 -declined 15% week-over-week, reflecting a seasonal lull in dollar transactions.
• Discounted Contracts: 10 contracts closed with discounts, with a median discount of just 6%.
• Market Breakdown: Condos held a 75% market share, while new developments and contracts above $10M represented 13% of all transactions each.

Macro Market Insights

Several economic factors are creating opportunities in the luxury market:

• Wall Street Bonuses: Expected to rise by 35%, the first increase since 2021, injecting liquidity into the $10M+ segment.
• Fed Rate Cuts: A 25-basis-point cut is anticipated this week, though fewer cuts are expected in 2024. Mortgage rates are likely to stabilize. Please take a look at the historical mortgage rate box below - historical average is nearly the same as our current average.
• Stock Market Strength: Market gains this year have bolstered liquidity and confidence, especially among affluent buyers in the $4M+ and $10M+ markets.

Top 2 Contracts of the Week - See All 32 Contracts

#1- 200 E 75th Street #PH S (New Development)

• Asking Price: $22.95M
• Size: 6 bedrooms, 6.5 bathrooms, 5,300 sq. ft.
• Price Per Square Foot: $4,330
• Days on Market: 260
• A luxurious Upper East Side penthouse in a sought-after new development, reflecting the continued demand for high-quality inventory in established neighborhoods.

#2- 56 Leonard Street #PH 52A (Resale Condo)

• Asking Price: $19.995M
• Size: 4 bedrooms, 4.5 bathrooms, 3,658 sq. ft.
• Price Per Square Foot: $5,466
• Days on Market: 365
• This Tribeca penthouse in the iconic “Jenga” building highlights demand for architectural masterpieces and downtown luxury.

From Data to Deals: Market Insights & Actionable Tactics

For Sellers

Sometimes it takes a fresh approach to achieve results. I recently worked with a seller whose property had been on the market for months with two other brokers. By rebranding and repositioning the listing, creating a bespoke marketing plan, and implementing targeted outreach, I reignited interest. Strategic negotiations secured an all-cash offer just $25,000 shy of the asking price—proof that the right strategy changes everything.

If your property hasn’t yet benefited from today’s momentum, now is the time to reassess:

• Pricing: Is your property competitively priced to attract buyers?
• Presentation: Are its most valuable features being highlighted?
• Marketing: Is your property’s story reaching the right audience?

If you have challenges , let's connect to diagnose your property’s issues and craft a strategy for success. Request a custom report or schedule a consultation. Email me here.

For Buyers

With new listings up 30% YoY, buyers have more opportunities to uncover value-driven deals. Strategic shopping is key:

• Hidden Gems: Renovation costs have subsided, with premiums now at 15%, down from the 30% highs of 2021–2022.
• Timeless Value: Consider pre-war properties or older condos with quality construction that often offer better value than pricier new developments.
• Smart Shopping: Focus on properties listed for 100+ days or with recent price reductions, where sellers are motivated to negotiate.

With the right guidance, navigating today’s market doesn’t have to be overwhelming. Let’s connect to find the perfect property for you. Schedule a consultation today.

Conclusion

Manhattan’s luxury market is thriving as the year winds down. For sellers, leveraging buyer demand with a fresh perspective can turn a stagnant listing into a success story. For buyers, carefully navigating inventory ensures you’ll uncover exceptional opportunities.

The Pulse is your guide to turn data into actionable insights to make smart real estate decisions.

Subscribe to The Pulse for weekly insights, and share it with others who could benefit. Watch my advice videos on my YouTube channel, Carol Staab - New York Real Estate Guru. Until next week, may your real estate dreams become a reality.