The Pulse - Manhattan Luxury Market 12/3/24

Manhattan Luxury Contracts Surge 75% Despite High Mortgage Rates—Here’s Why? November delivered an impressive 75% increase in $4M+ contracts compared to last year, showcasing the resilience of Manhattan’s luxury real estate market. While other luxury sectors like art and goods purchases are slowing, Manhattan real estate continues to attract high-net-worth buyers seeking stability and long-term value.

Welcome to this week’s edition of The Pulse, where I provide actionable insights and exclusive strategies to help you navigate Manhattan’s $4M+ market with confidence and success.

Key Highlights From Last Week

• Healthy Contract Numbers: Although contracts dipped 23% last week, 20 signed deals met the benchmark for market stability.
• Inventory Tightens: New listings dropped 46% last week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, contributing to a 21% YoY decline in November’s inventory.
• Condos Take the Lead: Condos represented 70% of last week’s contracts, while townhouses recorded no signed contracts.
• Neighborhood Leaders: Downtown Manhattan led the market, while the Upper East and Upper West Sides each held 25% of the market share.
• Discounts Narrow: While 50% of contracts involved discounts, the median discount was just 4%, showing strong interest in well-positioned properties.
• Total Sales Volume: $198,360,000—up 2% from the prior week.

Wondering how these trends impact your neighborhood? Reply to this email to request a custom analysis of your building or area.

Understanding Market Sentiment: Market Pulse & Climate Index

Market sentiment can be guaged from these two metrics Market Pulse & Climate Index. These metrics allow you to see where the market is headed as opposed to sales prices which are a rear view mirror look at the market.

#1- Market Pulse: At 2.4, this metric has risen 0.6 points month-over-month and 3.7 points year-over-year, signaling robust buyer activity relative to inventory.

#2- Climate Index: Although down -2.2% month-over-month, it has surged 93.5% compared to last year, highlighting long-term strength in the market.

Why It Matters:

• For sellers, these metrics indicate whether pricing and marketing strategies need adjustment to attract offers.
• For buyers, understanding market sentiment helps you time your negotiations and identify opportunities.

Have questions about these metrics or how they impact your property? Let’s connect to discuss your goals.

Macro Market Insights

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated there is no urgency for further rate cuts, with decisions hinging on key economic metrics like inflation and employment data. Traders currently see a 50-50 chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Meanwhile, mortgage rates in New York remain elevated at 6.80% and are likely to stay high in the near term.

Despite this, the Manhattan luxury market is thriving. Here’s why:

• Price Stability: Unlike many U.S. markets that saw steep price inflation post-COVID, Manhattan’s luxury property prices remain stable, making them a safe investment for high-net-worth buyers.
• Shift in Consumer Preferences: With luxury goods sales slowing—art sales down 36% and certain luxury categories dropping 20-25%—buyers are shifting toward tangible assets like real estate.
• All-Cash Dominance: Approximately 75% of November’s deals were all-cash transactions, highlighting the strength of financially liquid buyers who are less impacted by rising mortgage rates.

Let’s talk about how these market dynamics affect your buying or selling strategy. Contact me for personalized advice.

Manhattan Market Perspective & Actionable Insights

For Sellers:

• If you secured a contract in November, congratulations—you’ve capitalized on one of the hottest months of the year!
• If your property isn’t performing, now is the time to reassess its pricing, presentation, and marketing. Consider taking it off the market and repositioning it for a strategic relaunch in the robust spring season.

For Buyers:

• December’s quieter market offers an excellent opportunity to negotiate value-driven deals, particularly on properties with longer market times.
• Explore creative financing options like rate buydowns to maximize your purchasing power in a high-rate environment.

Are you ready to make the most of this market? Let’s create a plan tailored to your real estate goals. Email me here.

Behind the Deals: Affordable Luxury at Leighton House

I’ve become known as The Real Estate Doctor for my ability to diagnose a property’s unique challenges and craft bespoke strategies to achieve success.

A recent example is a listing at Leighton House that had struggled with two previous brokers to generate offers. Here’s how I turned it around:

• Strategic Rebranding: I repositioned the property as affordable luxury, focusing on its high-end finishes and livability at an attainable price point.
• Compelling Storytelling: A professional video showcased the property’s story, creating an emotional connection with the right buyers.
• Targeted Marketing: A bespoke digital campaign placed the listing in front of qualified buyers, driving urgency and competition.
• Negotiation Expertise: With multiple offers on the table, I secured an all-cash deal close to the asking price, with a 30-day closing.

This success highlights the importance of rebranding, storytelling, and strategic marketing in Manhattan’s competitive luxury market.

Could your property benefit from a fresh perspective? Let’s discuss how to position it for success in today’s market. Email me here.

Top 2 Contracts of the Week See all 20 Contracts

#1- 50 W 66th St, #52E

• New Extell Development in Lincoln Square
• Asking Price: $54.5M | $7,850 PSF
• 6,942 sq. ft | 5 Bedrooms | 5.5 Baths | Over 50% Sold

#2- 140 Franklin St, #2B

• Resale Condo in Tribeca
• Asking Price: $16.95M (reduced from $17.5M) | $2,690 PSF
• 6,300 sq. ft | 7 Bedrooms | 4.5 Baths

Conclusion: Your Next Move in Manhattan’s Luxury Market

Manhattan’s luxury market is thriving, driven by economic confidence, shifting buyer preferences, and all-cash dominance. Sellers, this is the time to capitalize on low inventory and strategic timing. Buyers, take advantage of December’s quieter market to secure opportunities.

Forward The Pulse to others who may benefit from these insights. Watch my advice videos on my You Tube Channel. Unitl next week may your real estate goals become a reality.