Manhattan's $4M & over market has consistently outperformed expectations with above-average contract numbers for the past five weeks. Welcome to The Pulse. Let's unpack the key insights and data from last week's market activity
This Week's Key Market Highlights:
Consistent Contract Activity: Last week mirrored the prior week , with 26 luxury contracts signed, despite the long holiday weekend. This performance marks a 1.2% increase over last February.
Inventory Dynamics: The luxury landscape is witnessing a shift in inventory. New listings saw a 28% decrease, while off-market listings declined by 20%, suggesting sellers are opting to stay the course, anticipating strong conditions of the active season ahead.
Dominance of the $10M+ Segment: The ultra-luxury market segment captured 31% of the market share. This robust showing underscores the resilience of Manhattan's ultra luxury properties.
Geographic Market Trends: Downtown maintained its leadership with a 39% share of the market, closely followed by the East Side, which claimed a 31% share, buoyed significantly by a high volume of co-op contracts.
Condos and Co-ops in Equilibrium: In an unexpected turn, condos and co-ops achieved parity, each securing a 42% share of the market. This is due to the large number of co-op contracts on the Upper East Side.
Negotiation Insights: 39% of contracts closed at a discount. The median discount edged to 5.6% from the original asking price to the final sale price.
Macro Market Movements: On the broader economic front, recent surges in consumer prices and a positive jobs report have prompted a cautious stance from Federal Reserve officials, hinting at a potential for interest rate cuts starting in June, a scenario that could influence future market dynamics in a very positive way.
Top 2 Listings of the Week:
432 Park Avenue #67B: A recent new development super tall condo listed at $27.5M for 4 bedrooms, 4.5 baths, and 4,019 sq ft, reflecting 85 days on the market.
135 E 79 #PH15W asking $19.995M . This recently reduced listing now asks $2.05M less, 5-bedrooms, 5.5-bath layout over 5,086 sq ft,
Advice for Sellers & Buyers
For Sellers: With the market's current trajectory, now is an opportune time to list. Embrace the 4 P's: Price, Position, Presentation, and Plan, to attract the right buyers.
For Buyers: In general , your leverage has weakened from the 4th quarter. However, prices haven’t seen an increase as of yet. Take advantage of this time before the market becomes more competitive.
FYI - Trump Condo Price Declines
In 2016 Trump condos began to decline in value compared to the overall Manhattan condo market. For example, Trump Tower, the crown jewel in the Trump condo collection has had values decline as much as 48% since 2013 which was near the peak for Manhattan prices. Part of this is due to the buildings age and growing competition from all the ultra luxury condo new developments on near by Billionaire's Row. That said, Trump Tower, prices have seen an upward trajectory since the 2019 low point. See the chart in the content box. in my opinion, Trump Tower & other Trump condos represent a real value play. The layouts are generous, the views and light are excellent as well as the amenities and services. They represent a real " value play". The negative stigma from the Trump brand will pass when Trump is no longer in the media spotlight.
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As we wrap up this week's edition of The Pulse, the key highlight remains the sustained strong performance of Manhattan's luxury real estate market, underscored by five consecutive weeks of above-average contract signings. Please reach out to me with any questions you have or advice you need to successfully navigate the Manhattan luxury market. Until next week, may your real estate goals and dreams in Manhattan become a reality.
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