The Pulse - Manhattan Luxury Market 3/31/25

Manhattan $4M+ luxury contracts surged 37% last week. Confidence is risign despite rates, inflation, tariff rates fluctuations and global noise.

Thinking of buying or selling in Q2? This week’s activity just revealed what serious money is doing in Manhattan right now.

In a market where uncertainty is the headline, Manhattan’s $4M+ buyers are writing a different story.

41 contracts were signed last week — a 37% increase from the prior week.

So far this March, 150 contracts have been signed — 36.6% higher than February and 4.9% above this time last year.

That’s not just noise — that’s real movement. In real estate, signed contracts are liquidity. They’re the clearest signal that money is moving, buyers are committing, and confidence is building.

The Market Pulse & Climate Index Are Rising

The Market Pulse, which measures the relationship between supply and demand, rose to 2.15 this week. That’s up 2.1 points from last Monday and 1.2 points higher than the same week last year.

The Climate Index — which reflects broader market favorability for sellers — is now 1.6, up 53.8% from last month and 37.9% year-over-year.

While the Climate Index shows it’s becoming an easier market for sellers, it doesn’t mean the market will forgive pricing mistakes. Buyers are engaged and moving — but they remain value-driven.This is the moment to lean into momentum with precision.

Listings Are Moving — Fewer Sellers Are Walking Away

While new listings are down 7% week-over-week and 12% lower than March 2024, there’s another key trend:

Listings taken off the market declined 10% last week, and are down 27% compared to March of last year.

More sellers are having success this March. Properties are being priced more strategically, marketed more effectively, and absorbed by a buyer pool that’s highly engaged.

Off-markets are shrinking — contracts are climbing.

The Data That Matters

• 41 contracts signed last week
• 150 contracts signed in March (so far) — pacing at seasonal norms - See new Signed Contract Liquidity report in boxes below
• Sales volume hit $398,790,800, up 21% from the prior week

Property Type Breakdown

• Condos: 34 contracts — 81% market share
• Co-ops: 8 contracts — 20% market share
• Townhouses: 0 contracts — a pause in this segment

Where Buyers Are Buying

• As typical, Downtown led the market -16 contracts and a 40% market share.
• The Upper East Side came in second with 11 contracts and a 27% market share. It is seeing a resurgence in demand, fueled by renewed interest, repositioned inventory, and strong value at the luxury level.
• Midtown: 4 contracts — 10% of the market
• West Side: 10 contracts — 24% market share

Ultra-Luxury Is Driving the Market

The $10M+ segment accounted for 10 of the 41 contracts last week — 24% of the market. 5 of those were over $20M, representing 12% of all weekly deals.

The top of the market is moving — buyers at this tier are not waiting.

New Development: Slower Week, Selective Activity

Only 2 new development contracts were signed last week — 13% of total contract volume.Sponsor activity was light, as buyers leaned into value plays in the resale space. Still, well-positioned new dev units are getting absorbed when priced right.

Discounts Are Still in Play

• 49% of contracts signed last week received a discount
• Median discount: 8% — moderate, but significant
• Buyers are negotiating — and smart sellers are meeting the market to get deals done

Top 2 Contracts of the Week- See All 41 Contracts

#1- 111 W 57th St #PH72 — Billionaires’ Row, New Development

Originally $66M → Reduced to $56M - 7,256 sq ft | $7,717 psf | 42 days on market A well-timed price shift brought the right buyer in short order

#2- 108 Leonard St #PHW — Tribeca Condo Resale - Asking: $24.5M (reduced by $480K)- 6,250 sq ft | $3,900 psf | 1,121 days on market

A long time coming — but a deal that still closed. Pricing clarity is everything.

Macroeconomic Signals

• Wall Street bonuses are up — average now $244,700, the first major increase since COVID
• U.S. home sales rose 4.2% in February — buyers are adjusting to current rate conditions
• Stock market dipped, but Manhattan luxury held steady
• CME FedWatch still shows one rate cut in June — a slow but stable easing path

Market Strategy Insights

For Sellers:

• Climate Index is up, but don’t confuse confidence with carte blanche
• 49% of deals had discounts, and the first 30 days remain critical
• Price it right, present it well, and your property will move
• Off-market withdrawals are falling — and that’s a good thing. More sellers are succeeding
• Your broker should be delivering weekly reporting, marketing data, and live comp tracking

For Buyers:

• 308 new listings in March, but 12% fewer than last year
• High-quality inventory is limited — and buyers are acting fast
• Work from contract-level data, not assumptions
• Understand pricing trends at the building level — and be ready to act when alignment hits

Final Word: Smart Moves in a Precision Market

This is not a speculative market. It's a strategic one.

• The Market Pulse is up.
• The Climate Index is rising.
• Sales are closing. Off-markets are falling.
• Ultra-luxury is moving.
• Confidence is returning. But clarity still drives action.
• Sellers who show up strong are getting results.
• Buyers with real-time data are landing deals.

Everyone else? They’re watching from the sidelines.

Want a Strategic Edge in Q2?

Whether you're preparing to list, actively buying, or watching from the sidelines — data is your advantage.

Request a custom market brief tailored to your building, price point, and goals.

Let’s make smart moves in a smart market.

Until next week, may your real estate goals become reality.