The Pulse - Manhattan Luxury Market 5/14/25

Manhattan $4M+ Contracts Dip 10%, But Momentum Holds | Upper East Side Co-ops Strong Activity

Deal activity last week remained notably above trend, with 36 contracts signed—a 10% weekly dip, yet still 80% above the benchmark of 20 contracts that defines a healthy $4M+ market.

Despite the slight pullback, buyer activity is strong. Signed contracts are up 8% from April and 26.5% year-over-year. Total sales volume rose 11%, showing that buyers are engaging—for properties priced correctly to the market.

Market Snapshot – Week Ending May 13

The weekly numbers reflect healthy momentum, though signs of selectivity are increasing:

• Contracts signed: 36 → down 10% from last week | up 8.3% from April | up 26.5% from the same time last year
• Sales volume: $344,815,030 → up 11%
• New listings: 68 → down 7% from last week
• Off-market listings: 38 → up 19% from last week | down 0.9% from the same period last year
• $10M+ contracts: 8 → 22% of total activity | 25 signed in the past 30 days → down 4.2% MoM | down 13.8% YoY
• New development contracts: 7 → 19% weekly market share → stronger than average performance

Market Indicators

• Market Pulse: 0.85 → down 1 point from the prior month | up 1.9 points from the same time last year
• The Market Pulse measures the ratio of contracts signed to active listings. A higher number indicates stronger demand relative to supply.
• Climate Index: 1.25 → down 32.6% from last month | up 16% YoY → selling climate for sellers is weaker this month
• The Climate Index measures the ratio of signed contracts to off-market listings. A rising number suggests a warmer, more seller-friendly market. A declining ratio signals a shift toward buyer selectivity or mispricing.

Neighborhood Performance

Buyer demand was concentrated in prime locations, with the Upper East Side leading the week:

• Upper East Side: 14 contracts (39%) → Co-ops in full-service buildings stood out
• Downtown: 12 contracts (33%)
• Upper West Side: 10 contracts (28%)
• Midtown: 0 contracts

Property Type Breakdown

Condos remained the majority of market activity, but co-ops had a standout week:

• Condos: 20 contracts (56%)
• Co-ops: 14 contracts (39%) → Above-average share driven by Upper East Side demand
• Townhouses: 2 contracts (6%)

Pricing Trends

Negotiability remains modest. Most deals are still happening close to ask:

• Contracts with price reductions: 12 of 36 (33%)
• Median discount: 5% from original to last asking price

Top 2 Contracts - See All 36 Contracts

#1 – Madison House, PH60A

$25M | 5,151 SF | $4,855 PPSF | 1,298 DOM

After nearly four years, the seller and market aligned—demonstrating the long game sometimes pays.

#2 – 995 Fifth Avenue, Stanhope Condop

$24.25M | Originally $29.5M (2021)

This land-leased condop ultimately closed at a 17.8% discount—showing how smart repositioning creates opportunity.

Macro Economic View

National economic signals remain encouraging:

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) posted its smallest annual gain since February 2021, showing signs of easing inflation.
• Financial markets responded favorably, with investor sentiment buoyed by the CPI report and a temporary U.S.–China trade agreement.

These developments suggest potential stability ahead—but Manhattan continues to move on its own terms.

Manhattan, however, remains asymmetrical to broader trends:

Prices rose just 2% post-COVID, and with 65% of luxury buyers paying in cash, mortgage rates have limited impact. Fundamentals—not speculation—are driving activity.

Seller and Buyer Advice

For Sellers:

Spring momentum is still in motion, but mid-June typically marks a seasonal slowdown. If your property isn’t seeing activity, the market is sending a message. Pricing and presentation need to reflect today—not a prior cycle. Many sellers wait too long to adjust—those who act now are getting ahead of the curve.

For Buyers:

Large discounts discounts remain a rarity. If you are looking for a deal, track the number of reductions and days on market. The best values often emerge right before summer and during July & August. For well priced renovated properties in prime locations be prepared to move quickly—those ready to act are in the strongest position.

If you'd like a custom report for your building, portfolio, or listing strategy, I’m happy to provide one or to answer any of your real estate questions. Email me here. Email me here.