The Pulse - Manhattan Luxury Market 9/10/24

Market Momentum Ignites: Manhattan’s luxury real estate market is off to an explosive start this fall, with $4M+ residential contracts surging 85% last week, breaking the record for the same week in September since before 2006. This robust activity sets a dynamic tone for the season ahead.

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Pulse! Here’s a deep dive into the latest market trends and insights.

Key Takeaways:

• Contracts Surge: Manhattan’s $4M+ residential contracts surged by 85% from the prior week, signaling a powerful kickoff to the fall market. Contracts are also up 9% compared to the same week last year, reflecting heightened demand.
  
  
• New Listings Soar: New listings soared 355% week-over-week as we enter the fall listing season. However, don’t be alarmed—new listings are actually down 15% compared to the same week last year.
  
  
• Condos Lead the Market: Condominiums continued to dominate with a substantial 75% market share. Downtown Manhattan led with a 33% share, followed by the Upper East Side with a 17% share.
  
  
• New Developments Excel: New development properties excelled with a 38% market share, while the $10M+ segment held a notable 21% market share.
  
  
• Discounts on Contracts: Five contracts received discounts from the original asking price, with a median discount of 6%.

Top 2 Contracts: See all 24 contracts

#1- 45 E 74th St: This townhouse, listed at $23.8M, features 6 bedrooms, 6.5 baths, and 9,000 sq ft. It exemplifies the high-end market's demand for luxury and space.

#2- 111 W 57th St, #27: This Steinway supertall condo is listed at $13M, offering 3 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, and 4,492 sq ft, with a price of $2,894 per sq ft. It has been on the market for 51 days.

Macro Economic News:

• Stock Market Volatility: The US stock market posted steep weekly losses after weaker-than-expected job market data reignited fears about the economy. Historically, September is the worst month for the stock market, and the market is awaiting the September 18 decision on whether the rate cut will be 25 or 50 basis points.
  
  
• Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates are holding steady at 6.35%, but have dropped 77 basis points from the same time last year.

Market Pulse:

• Ratio Between Supply and Demand: The Market Pulse is at 1.0 points, rising 0.7 points from the past month and 1.1 points from the same time last year. The pulse remains in a neutral, balanced zone.

Behind the Deals: The Pricing Struggles at 50 UN Plaza

A recent case underscores the importance of aligning pricing with market realities. A unit at 50 UN Plaza was purchased for $6.2M in 2017. Despite my advice to list the property at $4,999,000 to reflect market conditions, the seller insisted on a higher listing price of $5,650,000.

In 2021, an all-cash offer of $4.7M was received, accurately reflecting the strong market value at that time. The seller, however, declined this offer. The property has since been listed with two additional brokers and is now on its third broker, with the price reduced to $4,575,000—three years later. This prolonged time on the market and the need to reduce the asking price below the initial offer highlight the financial impact of overpricing.

Lessons Learned:

• Pricing Accuracy: Aligning your price with current market data is crucial. Overpricing can lead to missed opportunities, prolonged time on the market, and ultimately, a sale at a lower price than initial offers.
  
  
• Market Flexibility: Being open to competitive offers based on real market conditions can lead to better outcomes. Sticking to an inflated price in a changing market can result in missed opportunities and decreased final sale value.
  
  
• Broker Expertise: Engaging with experienced brokers who offer realistic pricing advice and understand market dynamics can prevent extended market exposure and financial losses.

Market Perspective: What It Means for You

For Sellers: With new listing inventory down 15% and demand up 9% from the same time last year, you have more leverage now compared to the late spring and summer. However, prices have remained steady and are not rising. Ensure your property is priced accurately, presented well, and backed by a comprehensive marketing strategy for a successful sale.

For Buyers: Fresh inventory is hitting the market, and with mortgage rates down, expect increased competition this fall. Navigate the market effectively by acting quickly on well-priced properties and making strong, competitive offers. Don't navigate this complex market alone—reach out to me for guidance on navigating the increased competition and making informed decisions.

Conclusion:

As we move through the fall season, the market continues to show strong activity. Remember, one week’s data doesn’t establish a trend, so stay informed and proactive. Sellers, while you have leverage, precise pricing and presentation remain crucial. Buyers, expect increased competition but also fresh opportunities. Please share the Pulse with others. If you would like some additional real estate tips watch my videos and subscribe to my You Tube channel.

Until next week, may your real estate goals and dreams become a reality!