Hi Carol,
Manhattan’s $4M+ luxury real estate market opened September with just 14 contracts signed—below the 20-contract benchmark considered healthy. This slowdown is typical for early September, as it reflects offers accepted in late August, when many buyers and sellers are away.
The bigger picture: contracts are down 37% over the last 30 days compared to last year, but supply tells a more nuanced story. Inventory remains 10% lower YoY, yet more than 165 new listings hit the market in the past two weeks, bringing fresh product into play just as buyers return from summer. Sellers face leaner overall competition, but they also must be strategic as new inventory competes for attention.
Market Snapshot
- Contracts Signed: 14 (↓ vs. 20 healthy benchmark; ↓ 37% YoY last 30 days)
- New Listings: ↓ 23% WoW; ↓ 10% YoY last 30 days; 165 new listings in past 2 weeks
- Off-Market Listings: ↓ 65% WoW; ↑ 28% YoY last 30 days
- Sales Volume: $102,360,000 (↓ 26% WoW)
- Condos lead with 11 contracts, 79% share
- Downtown lead with 8 contracts, 59% market share
- New Development: 3 contracts, 21% share
- Discounts: 4 contracts (29%) with reductions; median discount 10%
- $10M+ Segment: 1 contract, 7% market share
Market Indicators
Market Pulse (ratio of supply & demand — positive = stronger than seasonal norms):
- $4M+: 2.6 (↑ 1.3 pts MoM; ↑ 1.3 YoY)
- $10M+: 2.1 (↑ 1 pt MoM; ↓ 0.3 YoY)
Climate Index (contracts vs. off-market listings — higher = seller-favorable):
- $4M+: 0.81 (↑ 42.1% MoM; ↓ 19.1% YoY)
- $10M+: 0.36 (↓ 35.4% YoY)
#1 – 35 Hudson Yards, #7302
Asking $11.95M | 4 bedrooms, 4.5 baths | 4,148 sq. ft. | $2,880 psf New development condo | Reduced $550,000 | 1,570 days on market
#2 – 111 Murray Street, #1145E
Asking $9.195M | 3 bedrooms, 4.5 baths | Tribeca recent new development Reduced $305,000
Insights & Advice
For Sellers
- Lean Competition, Fresh Supply: Overall supply is down 10% YoY, but 165 new listings came on in the past two weeks. Precision pricing and standout presentation are key to competing.
- Seasonal Reset: Contract activity is slow, but this is typical. Buyers are returning from summer, and fresh inventory means attention is shifting quickly.
- Differentiate Now: With more choice in play, sellers must sharpen their edge through flawless staging, marketing, and narrative.
For Buyers
- New Inventory Wave: After a summer lull, the past two weeks brought 165 new listings—your best chance in months to explore fresh options.
- Negotiation Power: 29% of contracts last week closed with discounts, median 10%. With slower contracts and higher listing activity, opportunities exist to secure value.
- Act with Confidence: Supply remains lean relative to last year, so desirable properties won’t linger. Decisive buyers will capture the best of this new wave.
Macro Context
- Federal Reserve: The Fed meets today and is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. Mortgage rates have already declined in anticipation, with the 30-year fixed averaging 6.35% last week—an 11-month low.
- Buyer Psychology: Lower rates could entice sub-$4M buyers back, while some remain cautious until after the mayoral election.
- Market Balance: Contracts are slower, but leaner supply combined with new inventory suggests a competitive fall season ahead.
Final Word
Manhattan’s $4M+ luxury market began September with contracts below the healthy benchmark, but conditions remain dynamic: overall supply is still down 10% YoY, even as 165 new listings hit the market in the past two weeks.
For sellers: leaner competition remains an advantage, but fresh supply makes precise pricing and flawless presentation essential.
For buyers: this wave of new listings is an opportunity to act, with discounts still in play.
Thanks for reading The Pulse. If you find this valuable, please share it with others who follow Manhattan’s luxury market.
Want to know how your Manhattan luxury property is positioned in today’s $4M+ market? I’d be glad to prepare a tailored report specific to your home or building. Email me here.
Warm regards,
Carol
Carol Staab
Global Real Estate Advisor
Sotheby's International Realty..
650 Madison Avenue
Email: [email protected]
Cell: 917-273-7787
The Pulse: Where data becomes insight. And insight drives results.
Website: CarolStaab.Com
Website: Carol Staab at Sotheby's International Realty
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