Hi Carol,
Manhattan’s $4M+ luxury market staged a sharp rebound last week: contracts nearly doubled (+93%) while new listings surged 46%. After a muted Labor Day opening, momentum has returned — signaling that both buyers and sellers are back in play for the fall season.
Market Snapshot
- Contracts Signed: 27 (↑ 93% WoW; benchmark = 20 healthy)
- 30-Day Total: 65 contracts (↓ 25% YoY)
- New Listings: ↑ 46% WoW; 274 in last 30 days (↓ 3% YoY)
- Off-Market Listings: 37 last week (↑ 54% WoW); 131 in last 30 days (↓ 3% YoY)
- Sales Volume: $192,689,000 (↑ 38% WoW)
- Property Types: Condos led with 21 contracts (88% share)
- Neighborhood: Downtown strongest with 13 contracts (54% share)
- New Development: 3 contracts (13% share)
- Discounts: 8 contracts (21%) closed with a median 6% reduction
- $10M+ Segment: 2 contracts (8% share)
Market Indicators
- $4M+ Market Pulse: 1.3 (↑ 0.6 pts MoM; ↑ 0.2 YoY)
- Measures supply vs. demand by comparing contracts signed to new listings over 30 days. Higher = more seller-leaning.
- $4M+ Climate Index: 0.83 (↑ 45.6% MoM; ↑ 22.1% YoY)
- Tracks buyer follow-through, comparing contracts signed to listings withdrawn unsold. Higher = stronger buyer commitment.
- $10M+ Market Pulse: 0.08 (↓ 0.3 MoM; ↓ 1.7 YoY)
- $10M+ Climate Index: 0.42 (↑ 16.7% MoM; ↓ 35.4% YoY)
Top Two Contracts - See All 27 Contracts
#1 – 70 Vestry Street, #5B
- Asking $22.5M | 4 bedrooms, 4.5 baths | 3,242 sq. ft. | $6,940 psf
- Tribeca new development | 17 days on market
#2 – 35 Hudson Yards, #7302
- Asking $11.95M | 4 bedrooms, 4.5 baths | 4,148 sq. ft.
- Reduced $550,000 just 13 days ago | $2,880 psf
Advice for Sellers and Buyers
For Sellers
- Momentum Returns: Contracts surged 93%—buyers are back, though increasingly value-driven.
- Competition Rising: Listings jumped 46% WoW, though levels remain lean by historical standards.
- Action Step: Precision pricing and world-class presentation are essential to capturing attention in this environment.
For Buyers
- Financing Window: Mortgage rates remain favorable, with modest further easing possible.
- Negotiation Edge: 21% of contracts closed with discounts (median 6%).
- Action Step: Due diligence is critical, but decisive action secures the most desirable properties.
Macro Market View
- Federal Reserve: Last week’s 25 bps cut was anticipated, leaving mortgage rates steady to slightly higher.
- Outlook: Additional cuts are expected in October and December, suggesting gradual, not dramatic, improvements in borrowing costs.
Exclusive New Listing Spotlight
Ritz Carlton 50 Central Park South #28 - 6,800 sq. ft. - 4 bedrooms- 5.5 baths asking $29M
[Watch the Property Video]
[View the Full Listing]
Final Word
The September market has found its footing: contracts are once again above benchmark, listings are replenishing, and buyers are actively re-engaging. The season ahead will be competitive — lean supply remains an advantage for sellers, while disciplined buyers can still uncover value. The Pulse: Where data becomes insight. And insight drives results.
Confidential Property Positioning Review
For discerning sellers who want to understand exactly where their property stands as new inventory enters the market.
Simply
email me here, and I’ll prepare a confidential market analysis for you property.
Warm regards,
Carol
Carol Staab
Global Real Estate Advisor
Sotheby's International Realty.
650 Madison Avenue
The Pulse: Where data becomes insight. And insight drives results.
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