Hi Carol,
Contracts in Manhattan’s $4M+ luxury real estate market dipped 12% last week, with 15 deals signed. For the second week in a row, activity fell below the 20-contract benchmark that signals a healthy market. Still, it’s important to note: these two weeks are historically the slowest period of the year, so this is not a bearish trend.
Market Snapshot: Manhattan $4M+ Luxury Market
- Contracts Signed (weekly): 15, ↓12% from last week
- Contracts Signed (30 days): 92, ↓11% YoY
- New Listings (weekly): 93, ↑564% vs. prior week | ↓24% YoY (30 days)
- Off-Market Listings (weekly): 68, ↑26% vs. prior week | ↓6% YoY (30 days)
- Sales Volume (weekly): $139,195,000, ↓16% vs. prior week
- Discounts: 40% of contracts had price reductions, with a 10% median discount
- By Property Type: Condos led with 10 contracts (67% market share)
- By Location: East Side led with 5 contracts (33% market share)
- New Development: 4 contracts (27% market share) — above average
- $10M+ Luxury Sales: 4 contracts (27% market share) — strong performance
Market Indicators
- $4M+ Market Pulse: 2.4 ↑ 1.2 pts MoM | ↑ 0.1 pts YoY
- $4M+ Climate Index: 0.78 ↑ 36.8% MoM | ↑ 14.7% YoY
- $10M+ Market Pulse: 2.2 ↑ 1.3 pts MoM | ↑ 1.0 pts YoY
- $10M+ Climate Index: 0.43 ↑ 19.4% MoM | ↓ 33.8% YoY
Definitions:
- Market Pulse compares supply to pending sales. Readings above 2.0 indicate a seller-leaning market.
- Climate Index measures the ratio of contracts signed to listings that go off-market without a sale — a key gauge of real demand versus seller withdrawal.
Top 2 Contracts: Billionaire’s Row & Tribeca
#1- 111 West 57th Street, #58 (Billionaire’s Row) new development condo
- Asking Price: $22,000,000
- Size: 4,183 sq. ft. | 3 BR, 3.5 BA
- PPSF: $5,259
#2- 250 West Street, #9A - resale condo (Tribeca)
- Asking Price: $14,500,000
- Size: 4,100 sq. ft. | 4 BR, 4.5 BA
- PPSF: $3,536
Macro Market Insights: Fed Rate Cuts Ahead
The labor market is cooling, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Fed is expected to implement a 25 basis-point cut in September, with potential for monthly cuts through year-end. This could drive mortgage rates lower, directly boosting buyer purchasing power in Manhattan’s luxury market.
Seller & Buyer Insights
For Sellers:
- The past two weeks have been below the 20-contract benchmark, typical for late summer. With 93 new listings hitting the market last week, the fall selling season has begun. Price strategically and ensure your property presentation — from staging to marketing — is fawless to capture early fall buyers.
- Curious how your property would position in today’s shifting Manhattan luxury market? I’d be happy to prepare a custom Pulse report tailored to your home.
For Sellers with Expired Listings:
- If your property has been on the market without results, now is the time to rethink strategy.
- Let’s explore how rebranding and repositioning can unlock your property’s full potential in the fall market.
For Buyers:
This is a moment of opportunity. Fresh inventory is coming to market, and motivated sellers with stale listings may be open to negotiation. Start with a probing offer to test fexibility. As Fed rate cuts arrive, consider what fnancing your private banker can provide to secure an advantage.
Final Word
The Manhattan luxury market is entering its fall season with a food of fresh supply, steady market fundamentals, and positive economic tailwinds. Expect increased activity in the weeks ahead.
The Pulse: Where data transforms into actionable insights for smart real estate decisions.
- If you fnd The Pulse valuable, please consider sharing it with a friend or colleague who follows the Manhattan luxury market.
- I always welcome feedback — let me know which market insights matter most to you, so The Pulse continues to deliver the intelligence you need.
Warm regards,
Carol
Carol Staab
Global Real Estate Advisor
Sotheby's International Realty..
650 Madison Avenue
The Pulse: Where data becomes insight. And insight drives results.
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