The Pulse Manhattan - Luxury Market Report (02/16/2026)

Market Snapshot

• Weekly signed contracts ($4M+)

  • 39 contracts signed (+30% vs. 30 last week)

  30-day contract velocity

  • 133 contracts signed in the last 30 days (+16% year-over-year)

  New supply

  • 40 new listings last week (-36% vs. 62 the prior week)
  • 196 new listings in the last 30 days (-23% year-over-year)

  Weekly sales volume

  • $408,812,000 (+47% vs. prior week), driven by outsized trophy activity at the top of the market.

Property Type Breakdown (Weekly Contracts)

• Condos: 25 contracts (64% share)
• Townhouses: 6 contracts (17% share)
• Co-ops: 8 contracts (23% share)

Neighborhood Performance (Weekly Contracts)

• Upper East Side: 13 contracts (37%)
• Downtown (14th St & below): 9 contracts (26%)
• Midtown: 8 contracts (23%)
• Upper West Side: 5 contracts (13%)

Discounts & Negotiability

• 6 contracts reflected discounting (17% of weekly deals)
• Median discount: 6%

Negotiability is present—but it’s not universal. The market is still rewarding homes that are priced with discipline and presented with authority.

$10M+ and New Development Momentum

• $10M+ contracts: 13 (31% share)
• New development contracts: 8 (23% share)

When nearly one-third of weekly luxury deals are $10M+, it’s a clear signal: the highest-quality buyer pool is active, selective, and ready to move when the product is right.

Market Indicators: Market Pulse & Climate Index

Market Pulse (Liquidity Pace) tracks the market’s contract momentum—how quickly luxury inventory is being absorbed. Higher = faster absorption and stronger seller leverage.

Climate Index (Market Balance Score) measures the ratio of signed contracts to listings going off market, showing how seller-friendly conditions are. Higher = more seller-friendly.

Benchmarks: $4M+ easy 1.25 / challenging 0.57 | $10M+ easy 0.86 / challenging 0.38

$4M+ Indicators

• Market Pulse: 3.25 (+1.5 pts vs. last month | +1.6 pts YoY)- favoring sellers more
• Climate Index: 0.90 (+40.6% vs. last month | +18.4% YoY)- favoring sellers more

$10M+ Indicators

• Market Pulse: 3.55 (+3.5 pts vs. last month | +0.5 pts YoY) favoring sellers more
• Climate Index: 0.76 (+65.2% vs. last month | +4.1% YoY) favoring sellers more

Top 2 Contracts

(See all 39 contracts.)

#1 — 1122 Madison Avenue #18 (Upper East Side | New Development)

• $39,000,000 | 5 BD | 5.5 BA
• 5,251 SF | $7,427/SF
• A flagship new development trade—premium pricing, premium velocity.

#2 — 1122 Madison Avenue #16 (Upper East Side | New Development)

• $36,500,000 | 5 BD | 5.5 BA
• 5,251 SF | $6,951/SF
• Back-to-back $30M+ contracts reinforce what the market is already signaling: this building is selling quickly—and confidently.

Seller Advice

• If you’re $10M+: buyers are active, but only paying up for homes that are best-in-class on paper—light, views, scale, and a clean narrative.
• If you’re $4M–$10M: tightening supply makes this a smart moment to launch with precision—pricing, photography, and story must be cohesive from day one.
• Don’t “test” the market. The fastest deals enter with authority, not aspiration.

Buyer Advice

• Move early on the right home. Rising contract volume + tightening supply reduces negotiating room quickly.
• Negotiate selectively. A 6% median discount exists, but it’s usually found where product or pricing is compromised.
• Win with terms. Clean structure and certainty can outperform a slightly higher headline number.

Final Thoughts

This week delivered a telling combination: contracts surged, $10M+ activity intensified, and new listings dropped sharply. That’s the recipe for a market where positioning matters more than ever—and where the best homes can still command leverage.

If you’d like a discreet, property-specific Market Positioning Brief—your building’s latest signed contracts, current competition, and the strategic pricing band most likely to drive urgency—I’m happy to prepare it privately. Email me here

Warm regards,

Carol

Carol Staab

Senior Global Real Estate Advisor

Associate Broker

Top 100 Global Real Estate Sales Advisor

My Recent Notable Sale Ritz Carlton $28.4M

Sotheby's International Realty.

Email: [email protected]

Cell: 917-273-7787

Website: CarolStaab.Com

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