Greetings!
The Manhattan luxury market took a breather over the long holiday weekend, but context matters. Twenty-five contracts were signed at $4 million and over versus 35 the prior week. That is a 29% decline week over week, but 20 contracts remain the benchmark for a healthy luxury market. By that measure, this was still a very good week. The bigger story was not demand. It was seasonality. Many buyers and sellers were away for the holiday, and activity reflected that reality more than any change in underlying market conditions. What stood out was the performance of the ultra-luxury market. The $10 million and over segment produced 8 contracts and captured 32% of all luxury activity — an outstanding showing and a reminder that affluent buyers continue to move when exceptional properties come to market at prices they consider compelling.
Market Snapshot: Manhattan $4M+ Luxury Market
• 25 contracts signed | Down 29% from 35 the prior week • 36 new listings | Down 8% from 39 • 23 listings went off market | Down 26% from 31 • $165,957,499 in sales volume | Down 48% from $316,335,000 • 8 contracts at $10M+ | 32% of luxury activity • 1 new-development contract | 4% of luxury activity
This remains a healthy market despite the holiday slowdown.
30-Day Market View
Over the last 30 days: • 153 contracts signed | Unchanged from the same period last year • 213 new listings | Down 3% from 219 last year • 120 listings went off market | Down 37% from 190 last year
Pending sales continue to tell an important story beneath the weekly contract numbers.
The Manhattan $4M+ market currently has 588 pending sales, up 16% from last month, 13.3% from this time last year, and 50% year-to-date. The $10M+ market currently has 136 pending sales, up 9.7% from last month, 15.3% from this time last year, and an impressive 70% year-to-date. That tells me demand remains very real, even when weekly contract volume slows around a holiday weekend.
Property Type Breakdown
• Condos: 12 contracts | 48% market share • Co-ops: 12 contracts | 48% market share • Townhouses: 6 contracts | 24% market share
This was one of the most balanced weeks we have seen in some time. Co-ops matched condominiums contract for contract, reinforcing what we have been seeing for months: buyers are increasingly willing to embrace co-ops when pricing, location, scale, and building quality align. Townhouses also delivered a solid performance considering how small a percentage of Manhattan housing stock they represent.
Neighborhood Performance
• Upper East Side: 9 contracts | 36% market share • Downtown: 8 contracts | 32% market share • Upper West Side: 4 contracts | 16% market share • Midtown: 4 contracts | 16% market share
The Upper East Side narrowly led the market this week, while Downtown continued to benefit from demand for newer condominium inventory and lifestyle-driven neighborhoods.
Discounts
Sixteen of the twenty-five contracts — 62% of the market — received a discount from the original asking price to the last asking price.
The median discount was 6.37%.
Buyers remain active, but they continue to negotiate when properties are overpriced, stale, or not properly positioned.
$4M+ Market Indicators
Market Pulse: 4.25 Up 0.8 points from last month and up 1.1 points from the same time last year.
Climate Index: 1.70 Up 14.9% from last month and up 18.1% from the same time last year. Easy Seller Threshold: 1.26 Challenging Seller Threshold: 0.57
At 1.70, the market remains firmly above the easy-seller threshold, indicating conditions continue to favor sellers who are priced and positioned correctly.
$10M+ Market Indicators
The $10 million and over market had an outstanding week with 8 contracts representing 32% of all luxury activity.
Market Pulse: 3.25 Down 0.1 points from last month and down 0.1 points from the same time last year.
Climate Index: 1.30 Down 10.3% from last month and up 4% from the same time last year. Easy Seller Threshold: 0.86 Challenging Seller Threshold: 0.37
Despite modest softening in the indicators, the ultra-luxury market continues to operate comfortably above seller-favorable conditions.
Definition: The Market Pulse measures the balance between supply and demand. A higher reading indicates stronger seller leverage and improving market conditions.
Definition: The Climate Index measures current market conditions against seller-favorable and challenging-seller thresholds. Readings above the easy-seller threshold indicate a more favorable environment for sellers.
Peak at the 2nd Quarter 2026
In the 2nd Quarter in the $4M and over Manhattan luxury market, 355 properties sold versus 451 in the 2nd quarter of 2025. The Manhattan luxury market was down 21% in the number of sales this 2nd quarter to the same quarter last year.
In the 2nd quarter of 2026, the median price was $6.20M, the median price per sq ft was $2,427, the median size was 2,677 sq ft, average days on market was 112, and the median discount was 4.5%.
In the 2nd quarter of 2025, the median price was $6.2M, the median price per sq ft was $2,404, the median size was 2,754, the average days on market were 122, and the average discount was 6.4%.
While quarterly sales reports are important, we need to keep in mind that they represent a rear-view mirror that reflects on what happened in the market 3 months ago. We will get a much truer read at the end of September when we have the closing numbers that will reflect what is going on presently in our market.
1. 565 Broome Street #528A | SoHo
Asking Price: $18,995,000 Condominium 4 Bedrooms | 5.5 Baths 4,682 SF | $4,057 PSF Price reduced by $1,955,000 prior to contract.
2. 1107 Fifth Avenue #9N | Carnegie Hill
Asking Price: $11,500,000 Prewar Cooperative 4 Bedrooms | 4.5 Baths 171 Days on Market Price reduced by $1 million two months prior to contract.
Boots on the Ground
This market feels healthy, but selective. Buyers are moving quickly on properties that check the right boxes and showing little urgency toward those that do not. The listings that are selling tend to have the right combination of pricing, presentation, quality, scale, and a clear value proposition. The listings that struggle usually have an issue with pricing, product, presentation — and sometimes all three.
Seller Advice
Sellers should feel encouraged by this market, but not overconfident. Twenty-five contracts during a holiday week is a strong result. The Climate Index remains firmly in seller territory, and the ultra-luxury market delivered an exceptional performance.
If your property is not generating activity, now is the time for an honest diagnosis.
Is the price aligned with today's market? Is the presentation elevating the asset? Is the marketing creating desire? The market continues to reward sellers who answer those questions correctly.
Buyer Advice
Buyers should not mistake a seasonal slowdown for market weakness. Pending sales suggest demand remains exceptionally strong and inventory growth remains modest.
Preparation remains the advantage.
Know your buildings. Understand pricing history. Watch reductions carefully. Compare carrying costs and renovation exposure.
There is still negotiability, but the best opportunities are often the properties the broader market has not yet recognized.
Final Thoughts
The Manhattan luxury market slowed during the holiday week, but the fundamentals remain healthy.
Contract activity remains above the healthy-market benchmark. Pending sales continue to strengthen. Sellers are staying in the market longer. And the $10 million and over segment delivered one of its strongest performances of the summer.
The market is not easy, but it remains very good.
For sellers, this is a market that rewards strategy and precision.
For buyers, it remains a market that rewards preparation and conviction. The data tells us what happened. The diagnosis reveals what to do next.
If you are considering selling, evaluating your property's position in today's market, or trying to understand how current conditions affect your next move, I would be pleased to share a private, customized perspective. Email me here.
Warm regards, Carol Carol Staab Ranked by Real Trends -Top 1.5% of real estate professionals nationwide Top 100 Sotheby's Company Wide Global Real Estate Sales Advisor My Notable Sale Ritz Carlton $28.4M Sotheby's International Realty. Email: [email protected] Cell: 917-273-7787 "The Pulse: Where data becomes insight. And insight drives results."Website: CarolStaab.Com Subscribe to the Pulse Here | 
